After a tough Week 18, we kicked off the playoffs with a strong 5-1 run on Wild Card Weekend. The goal now is to keep the momentum rolling through the Divisional Round. We have four games on the slate, and I’m breaking down the best bets for each. So buckle up and let’s find the best Divisional Round NFL bets.
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Divisional Round NFL Best Bets, Sides & Totals
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Texans at Chiefs (-7.5)
The Texans always seem to draw the early Saturday game, and this year is no different. Last week we called out the Chargers as being overvalued, and the Texans didn’t just win — they dominated. C.J. Stroud and the offense looked sharp, but the real story was Houston’s defense.
Justin Herbert, who had thrown only three interceptions all season, tossed four in the Wild Card round. Houston’s defense suffocated him, though it’s hard to believe it will repeat that level of dominance against Patrick Mahomes and company.
The Chiefs aren’t the explosive juggernaut they’ve been in recent years. Instead, they’ve relied on methodical, clock-draining drives and surgical precision. This style keeps games closer and lowers scoring overall. While Houston should keep this competitive, I haven’t bet the spread yet. Instead, I’m leaning toward under 41.5 points as the best play for this game. Stick around — I have an even better way to attack this matchup later.
Best Texans-Chiefs Bet: Under 41.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Commanders at Lions (-8.5)
Detroit is an 8.5-point home favorite in a game with a massive 55.5-point total. Last week, the Commanders defied expectations, taking down Tampa Bay in a gritty performance. I admit I underestimated Jayden Daniels and this Washington squad, but I’ll own that loss.
This week, Washington heads to Detroit, where the Lions have rested, regrouped and gotten healthier. Offensively, Detroit is one of the most creative and dynamic teams in the league. Defensively, it has managed to hold its own, even against elite offenses.
While I’m not betting the spread here just yet, I’m leaning toward under 55.5 points. This is a huge total, and unless Detroit’s defense completely collapses, it’ll be tough for both teams to hit this number.
Best Commanders-Lions Bet: Under 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Rams at Eagles (-6)
The Rams have been surprisingly solid this season, especially defensively. Their young talent on the defensive line has exceeded expectations, and they’ve been giving opposing quarterbacks fits. Sam Darnold’s nine-sack disaster against this team last week was brutal to watch.
That said, the Eagles offensive line is one of the best in the league. It can protect Jalen Hurts and open up the run game like few others. While the Rams may draw some public money after their dominant showing on Monday Night Football, I’m sticking with the Eagles at -6. Philadelphia’s physicality, balanced offense and dominant offensive line should be the difference here.
Best Rams-Eagles Bet: Eagles -6 (-110 at BetMGM)
Ravens (-1.5) at Bills
This is the game of the week, without question. The Ravens are favored by 1.5 points, and the total is set at 51.5. Both teams cruised to easy wins in the Wild Card round, setting up this heavyweight clash.
The Chiefs have ruled the AFC for years, and this matchup feels like a battle for the right to challenge them. Buffalo and Baltimore are elite teams with everything to prove, and this game could go either way. While I lean slightly toward the Bills at +1.5, my favorite way to play this is through a teaser.
Best Ravens-Bills Bet: Bills +1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My Favorite Bet: The Divisional Round Teaser
Here’s how I’m attacking the Divisional Round: A 6-point teaser on FanDuel that includes three games.
- Chiefs teased down to -1.5
- Lions teased down to -2.5
- Bills teased up to +7.5
Teasing the Bills outside of a touchdown feels like a steal in a game this close. Adding the Lions and Chiefs, both favorites teased under a field goal, completes a three-leg teaser I’m confident in.
