Nothing is a better cure for the Sunday scaries than a fun Sunday Night Football matchup. Last weekend’s beatdown wasn’t a fun watch, but this weekend’s Dolphins-Patriots game should be close — the books are narrowly favoring the Phins on the road. Let’s identify the best Dolphins-Patriots player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 2’s edition of Sunday Night Football.
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Dolphins-Patriots Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Dolphins: -154 | Patriots: +130
Dolphins -2.5: -120 | Patriots +2.5: -102
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110
Dolphins-Patriots Player Prop
Let’s get a bit funky with this Dolphins-Patriots player prop. The Dolphins gave up a whopping 233 rushing yards to the Chargers last week, so I expect plenty of people to get action on Rhamondre Stevenson, especially with his rushing prop set to 50.5. Meanwhile. wide receiver Kendrick Bourne has been getting hyped up all week after catching six passes for 64 yards, so plenty of action should come in on him to go over 38.5 receiving yards. Those are both solid bets, but I just want action on Mac Jones’ passing yards.
Jones threw the ball a career-high 54 times last week as the Patriots played from behind. He completed 35 of those attempts for 316 yards. While the game script certainly played a role, it’s encouraging to see the new-look Patriots offense under coordinator Bill O’Brien rely so heavily on the pass. Jones averaged 223.6 passing yards on 30.6 attempts per game in his rookie season before averaging only 214.1 on 31.6 last season. With the line set to 237.5 at FanDuel, we can tease it up to 250 for +128 (43.9%).
The Miami defense isn’t good against either the run or the pass. The Dolphins rank 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, clocking in at 24th against dropbacks and 32nd against rushing attempts. However, they allowed a league-high 58.8% success rate against passes, which tells me that the Chargers could’ve gotten more from their passing game if they wanted. Let’s back Mac Jones to obliterate a shaky secondary that desperately needs Jalen Ramsey to get healthy.
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Dolphins-Patriots Player Prop Pick: Mac Jones 250+ Passing Yards +128 at FanDuel
Dolphins-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Our top Dolphins-Patriots anytime touchdown scorer bet correlates with our top player prop pick — we’re betting on one of Jones’ trusty targets, tight end Hunter Henry. Henry led the Patriots in red-zone targets last year with seven. Three of those targets came inside the 10-yard line. Henry struggled with red-zone efficiency last year, catching only one of those targets and failing to find paydirt, but he should regress to the mean this year.
Heading into this season, Henry is Jones’ most reliable red-zone target. Two of Jones’ trusted alternatives from last year, Damien Harris (13% of New England’s red-zone targets) and Jakobi Meyers (15.2%) are gone. Henry started the season with a touchdown catch in the red zone against the Philadelphia Eagles. He now faces a Dolphins defense that coughed up a score to backup tight end Donald Parham Jr. in Week 1. Henry caught seven of nine targets for 72 yards and no scores against the Fish last year.
The odds for Henry to score a touchdown vary from +230 (30.3%) at DraftKings to +310 (24.4%) at FanDuel. Even Pinnacle, a sharp book with long anytime touchdown odds, lists Henry at +305 (24.7%). It’s certainly not a lock that Henry will score, but his actual chances of finding paydirt are better than 25%, especially with how often Jones looked his way in the red zone last season. Let’s take advantage of the misprice before it disappears and lock in this Dolphins-Patriots bet for Sunday.
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Dolphins-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Hunter Henry +310 at FanDuel
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