The NFL work week culminates with an out-of-conference matchup between two teams desperate for a win. Of course, the Los Angeles Rams may define desperate a little more loosely than the two-win Dolphins, but the NFC West is no cakewalk and Los Angeles needs wins. Miami needs anything to keep playoff hopes alive, especially with a (currently) healthy Tua Tagovailoa. We certainly had our chances with our touchdown bets, but we came up short on Sunday night. But we’ve still cashed two of our last three tickets; here is Monday night’s best Dolphins-Rams anytime touchdown bet.
Dolphins-Rams Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday
Sometimes it’s just about betting the right price more than anything else, but it’s a little sweeter when the data supports the play. I’m on Miami tonight — pushed them in a two-leg same-game parlay on my Tails expert picks at +3.5 — and Tagovailoa can move the ball through the air. While the wrist is certainly a concern, as any late-week injury designation can carry, I’m still confident we will get a healthy dose of Tyreek Hill on the field. But he’s dealing with something, and that hasn’t been factored in across the board.
One that should have dropped is the anytime touchdown market on the Dolphins side, specifically with Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins tight end has seen six-plus targets in each of his last four games and is clearly one of the main progressions for Tagovailoa. At the same time, the game plan won’t shift away from trying to slow down Hill or Jaylen Waddle. The +310 price for a Smith anytime touchdown seems a little long for one of the primary focuses of the passing game.
If Hill is 100% and this is all about nothing, we still get a decent price on Smith, one that drops moving forward following a score tonight. Think of it as buy low or simply getting ahead of the price change. Tagovailoa clearly has a trust level with Smith, and it should continue throughout this game as the Dolphins will throw a decent amount. The Rams haven’t been sharp in stopping the tight end position either, which should aid Smith in finding some soft spots. A lot adds up for us to jump on Smith, from the number to matchup to opportunity around him.
This game has a total sitting around 48 and should see a lot of throwing. With an expected spread to close in the 2.5 to 3 range, we should also expect things to either be close or get close. Miami will get up or back in this game by throwing more than anything else, and Smith is an undervalued weapon in tonight’s game plan.
Dolphins-Rams Anytime Touchdown Bet: Jonnu Smith (+310 at FanDuel)
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