The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will square off in a pivotal AFC battle on Sunday afternoon. The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win, but with a loss, they’ll still be at risk of losing the AFC North. The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East and stay alive in the race for the No. 1 seed with a win, and, like the Ravens, a loss means they’re still vulnerable in their division. Somebody is winning a divisional title on Sunday, but we’ll have to wait and see who it is. With so much on the line, let’s dive into the best Dolphins-Ravens player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Gus Edwards. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Dolphins-Ravens Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday
Dolphins-Ravens Odds for Sunday
Odds via bet365
Dolphins: +145 | Ravens: -170
Dolphins +3: -110 | Ravens -3: -110
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins-Ravens Player Prop Pick
Gus Edwards O/U 39.5 Rushing Yards
If the Baltimore Ravens win on Sunday, it’ll be because they successfully made the game boring. They can do so by running the ball effectively, thereby keeping the ball away from the Miami Dolphins offense and Tyreek Hill.
With Keaton Mitchell done for the year, running back Gus Edwards will get the bulk of the work for Baltimore. Edwards ran the ball just nine times last week against the 49ers, so we’re getting him at a somewhat depressed number.
Edwards is averaging 11.5 carries for 46.5 rushing yards per game this year. He has eclipsed the 40-yard mark in 10 of his 15 appearances (66.7%), the bulk of which came with competition from either J.K. Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell. Those two are gone, leaving Melvin Gordon III and Justice Hill as his primary competition.
Edwards benefits from playing behind an incredible offensive line. The Ravens rank fourth in run-block win rate (73%) and seventh in weighted adjusted line yards (4.32). Miami’s defense ranks 16th in run-stop win rate (31%) and 18th in adjusted line yards (4.18).
The key to beating the Dolphins — without scoring a wild late-game comeback as the Tennessee Titans did — is to keep the ball on the ground and away from Hill and Tua Tagovailoa. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dolphins behind 62 rushing yards on 15 carries from D’Andre Swift. The Kansas City Chiefs did so behind 66 rushing yards on 16 carries from Isiah Pacheco. The Buffalo Bills got 90 rushing yards on 22 carries from the combination of Latavius Murray, James Cook and Damien Harris.
Dolphins-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Gus Edwards Over 39.5 Rushing Yards -110 at bet365
Looking for another +EV NFL player prop to add to your betting card? The highest-rated pick in OddsShopper’s model as of publication was this Javonte Williams over. The price of +112 for the over 14.5 rushing attempts at Caesars is quite an off-market number — the same wager would cost you -108 at FanDuel, -115 at bet365 and -120 at PointsBet. To find the most up-to-date picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium! You can take 50% off with code “ISIROIS” at checkout.
Dolphins-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I’m going to keep things simple with this pick. The Ravens trust no one more than Gus Edwards in the red zone — he has earned 34 carries inside the 20-yard line (35.4%), 26 inside the 10 (47.3%) and 17 inside the five (60.7%). The Ravens are also favored for this one, and the total sits in the mid-40s.
I’m not sure why Edwards is a plus-money pick to find paydirt, but he is — and he has longer odds than Raheem Mostert and Tyreek Hill. Sure, Mostert and Hill have scored a bunch this year. The Ravens have also allowed the fewest offensive touchdowns per game (1.3). Miami ranks just 13th (2.1).
The Ravens and Dolphins both allow opposing offenses to get into the red zone at the same rate — 2.9 times per game. However, the Ravens have allowed a touchdown 38.6% of the time, which ranks third, while the Dolphins have allowed one 63.6% of the time, which ranks 26th.
The books disagree about the right price for Edwards. You’ll find him listed at +120 on FanDuel and bet365 but at +105 on Pinnacle, a sharp book, -110 on Caesars and -115 on BetMGM. Edwards’ odds of finding paydirt should be better than a coinflip, so anything above +100 is value to me.
Dolphins-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Gus Edwards +120 at bet365
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