We’ve got an AFC North showdown featuring the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. Weather will play a significant role in each team’s game plan and, in turn, the betting market. Forecasts predict winds exceeding 15 mph, temperatures below 40 degrees, and a chance of precipitation – conditions that have already dropped the total from 42 to 37. This unique setting presents intriguing opportunities in the player prop market. Let’s go ahead and dive into my favorite picks with the top two DraftKings Pick6 NFL predictions for the Browns-Steelers Thursday Night Football game!
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DraftKings Pick6 NFL Predictions for Browns-Steelers
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Pat Freiermuth M/L 18.5 Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth is averaging three receptions on about four targets for 29.5 receiving yards per game this season.
This week, he faces a Cleveland Browns defense that has allowed opposing tight ends to average five receptions for 48 yards per game. In windy conditions like these, quarterbacks often lean on their tight ends for shorter, safer passes rather than forcing throws downfield into the wind.
Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections have Freiermuth at two receptions for 23 yards, which would clear this prop mark. However, I believe he will exceed those projections even more.
This line has been moving since it opened, with some books setting it as high as 20.5 yards. Let’s take advantage of the lower number and back the Steelers top tight end to clear this yardage total.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Pat Freiermuth More Than 18.5 Receiving Yards
Jameis Winston M/L 8.5 Rushing Yards
It might seem odd to target a rushing yards prop for Jameis Winston, but there’s a solid case for it.
As noted, this game is going to feature high winds, which will make passing efforts difficult. As underdogs, the Browns are likely to find themselves trailing and needing to create momentum in unconventional ways. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense is among the NFL’s best, ranking third in dropback EPA and fourth in dropback success rate.
If the Steelers continue to stifle the passing attack and Nick Chubb struggles to find his rhythm on the ground, Winston may be forced to create opportunities on his own. Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections have Winston rushing for 11 yards, just slightly above the 8.5-yard prop being offered. While the margin isn’t huge, I believe Winston’s need to improvise will lead to him exceeding these expectations.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Jameis Winston More Than 8.5 Rushing Yards
