We welcomed back the NFL season by going 2-0 in our DraftKings Pick6 set. Since we were so successful last Thursday in Kansas City that the editors allowed me back this week. We have a short week for both Miami and Buffalo, with the Bills catching a rare break as they play in South Beach. The Dolphins are dealing with injuries, while Buffalo looked far better last week. We identified two edges for a Thursday night winner with these NFL DraftKings Pick6 predictions.
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DraftKings Pick6 NFL Predictions Today
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Josh Allen M/L Than 37.5 Rushing Yards
This game might hit the over in the first half, but it will be Buffalo leading the offensive charge. With Miami playing from behind or in pass-first mode, the Bills will have more opportunity to run downhill. Josh Allen covered 39 yards on the ground but was more impressive through the air — primarily by not turning over the football. It was a lighter day overall on the ground for Allen.
Buffalo’s best rusher remains the quarterback because of his dual threat. In 12 games against Miami, Allen is averaging 35 rushing yards per contest. I see a bump in that against a softer Dolphins defense and a team dealing with injuries. The success of James Cook rushing or someone like Dalton Kincaid exploiting the Dolphins defense won’t impact this play.
If anything, we will see some lanes open with a Bills lead. Allen isn’t exactly the type of quarterback who protects his body with the lead, and he should put his head down and run. Even if Miami finds a way to buck recent trends against Sean McDermott, Allen should be able to extend some drives with his legs as Buffalo plays catchup.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Josh Allen More Than 37.5 Rushing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa M/L Than 265.5 Passing Yards
Maybe it’s a matter of defending other areas outside of Tyreek Hill, forcing Miami to find other ways to eventually win games, maybe it’s a mental block. This time around there’s a pathway for some success for Tua Tagovailoa, specifically throwing the ball. The Bills defense doesn’t come in as any lockdown threat, not after Arizona toyed with it last week. While we should expect some regression to the mean, there are still plenty of downfield areas to attack.
The Dolphins happen to have the best vertical threat in the NFL, so long as he’s physically present, in Hill. Expect Tagovailoa to have some vertical freedom in going downfield. While his touchdown-to-interception numbers may not be pretty, once again, against this Bills defense — he should have opportunities to throw to Hill. It won’t be the Tagovailoa-to-Tyreek-only show, as the Dolphins won’t be able to run much with the Bills defensive front, at least compared to how much easier it should be to throw deep. If Mike McDaniel is worth any peanuts, he will come out firing.
If the Bills jump out, this play is even better as Miami’s only option is to throw, then throw again.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa More Than 265.5 Passing Yards
