The first four weeks of the NFL season have been about as up and down as we’ve seen, at least in recent memory. Dogs of 5.5+ points are not only covering, but also winning out right. Meanwhile, another heavy favorite goes down leaving public bettors to scratch their heads in disbelief. Within all this team chaos we find a nice pathway to success by targeting some solid player props on DraftKings Pick6. We will lean on OddsShopper’s Pick6 Optimizer to leverage any value against the market, as we get you the top two plays to kickstart your set!
Last year, we cashed in over 140 units on our tracked NFL and NCAAF bets! Join Eytan and the OddsShopper team in our brand-new Tails by OddsShopper, where you can connect with fellow bettors and industry experts!
DraftKings Pick6 NFL Predictions for Week 5 Today
Want more NFL pick’em tips? Check out our other NFL articles and NFL +EV picks, or dive into our guide to DraftKings Pick6 for expert advice!
Jaxon Smith-Njigba M/L Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
The Seahawks main concern in getting Jaxon Smith-Njigba over the above total is simply being up too much on the Giants. Now without Malik Nabers, New York’s chances of staying in this football game are looking dimmer by the minute. This is just about how fast Seattle can get up in this game, while utilizing their young talent to get there.
There’s no true way to work around the inconsistencies from him over four games, with two basically being nonexistent, versus two where he went off and torched teams. The target share has been there in those two games, it’s just fallen off against both Miami and Denver. While the Broncos are certainly a better defense than what New York is parading out, there’s still some concern. That’s not enough to outweigh the positives here, that Smith-Njigba can truly dominate the Giants secondary, especially with continued focus on slowing down DK Metcalf.
While still graded as a loss, it’s interesting to note that in one of those stinkers — Smith-Njigba still had 39 yards on three grabs. While that seems low, it’s less than 10 yards north of the above total. Meaning, he’s got some long receptions in him and can effectively smash this number with five or six catches against a poor defense.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba More Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
James Conner M/L 0.5 Rush & Receiving Touchdown
We have an anytime touchdown play for Cardinals back James Conner against this stout 49ers defense. Looking a little deeper, we find two big things that stand out, certainly helping Conner’s case to score. The first is the defense itself, you might not recognize a few names as the entire unit is banged up. Guys are either playing hurt or missing time due to injury. There’s a narrow but still plausible pathway for Conner and the Cards to run on San Fran, early and often.
Conner is also involved in the passing game despite seeing just one target in each of the last three games. The 49ers — banged up or not — are going to apply pressure on Kyler Murray. The goal here is to get the ball to Conner, be it red zone or even goal line chances. He’s a great option to leak out of the backfield after play action or getting stuffed on the ground.
The other thing to look at is the heat today. This is one of the hottest days on record in October for a 49ers home game. The heat will slow things down, allow for more running and clock control. Sure, both teams are dealing with it, but we are focused on how this effects Conner and the Cards ability to run. He’s had at least 16 touches in three of four games and should see north of 18 on Sunday. The volume and small option in the pass game, combined with the heat are enough for us to fire on Conners to score.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: James Conner More Than 0.5 Rushing & Receiving Touchdown
