The Super Bowl has finally arrived and there are plenty of props to explore for today’s pair of game! Our projections are showing numerous edges and we’re looking to exploit those with this week’s DraftKings Pick6 predictions. Here are your top two plays for the Super Bowl!
DraftKings Pick6 NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl
Join Danny and the OddsShopper team in our brand-new Tails by OddsShopper, where you can connect with fellow bettors and industry betting experts! Sign up for Burke’s Bets Use promo code “Burke50” and receive 50% off your first week or month!
Patrick Mahomes M/L Than 36.5 Passing Attempts
Through two playoff games, Patrick Mahomes has attempted 51 passes—25 against the Texans and 26 against the Bills.
Despite those relatively low numbers, his passing attempts prop is set as high as 36.5. While he did average around 36 attempts per game in the regular season, that number still feels a bit inflated.
Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections have Mahomes at 34 attempts, and I agree with that prediction. In general, I give the slight edge to the Chiefs in this matchup, which could lead to a late-game emphasis on the ground attack to manage the clock rather than a pass-heavy approach dictated by playing from behind.
Kansas City has leaned on a backfield duo of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco throughout the postseason, and I don’t expect that to change on the biggest stage.
Their offensive formula has worked so far—no need to fix what isn’t broken. Mahomes will undoubtedly make key plays, but I don’t see him throwing more than 36 times.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Less Than 36.5 Passing Attempts
Jalen Hurts M/L Than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
When it to our DraftKings Pick6 plays, I usually try to avoid taking players to score a touchdown, however, exceptions can be made when my confidence is strong enough. This is one of those times.
Jalen Hurts racked up 14 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and added four more across three playoff games. Yet, he’s priced at just -115 to score in the Super Bowl.
Most bettors prefer plus-money odds when wagering on anytime touchdown props, but some players are worth laying the juice—Hurts is one of them.
As mentioned, he’s been a frequent visitor to the end zone this season. He faces a Kansas City defense that has been solid overall, but has shown cracks in the playoffs, allowing a 67% red-zone efficiency in their two postseason games.
That said, red-zone defense is almost irrelevant against the Eagles. Once they get inside the five-yard line, they turn to their nearly unstoppable “tush push.”
In the biggest game of the season—and their careers—Philly won’t hesitate to rely on their go-to play in critical moments. They’ve trusted it more than handing the ball to Saquon Barkley, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about him taking away Hurts’ opportunities when they get close enough.
With the total sitting around 48.5, this game projects for plenty of scoring. I’d be shocked if we didn’t see multiple tush push attempts near the goal line. At this price, it’s a bet worth making.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
