The Super Bowl has almost arrived. After a grueling NFL regular season and an action-packed set of playoff games, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in State Farm Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 12. NFL fans and bettors searching for a crystal ball to stare into need not look further — here are my model’s predictions and picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Eagles and Chiefs.
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Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl LVII Prediction & Best Bet
NFL Betting Model’s Playoff Record
My NFL betting model, which uses expected points added (EPA) to estimate the outcomes of each game, has successfully gone 7-4-1 against the spread during the playoffs and is 5-1 at identifying moneyline bets that have value. Bettors who wagered $100 on each of the model’s picks would have profited $379 during the playoffs alone, good for a healthy return on investment of 22.2%.
The San Francisco 49ers were the only team whose moneyline it found to have held value that failed to win. Unfortunately, the model couldn’t predict that starting quarterback Brock Purdy would go down early with an elbow injury in the NFC Championship game. Still, it only gave the 49ers a 48% chance of winning that contest, slightly better than the 45% chance given to them by sportsbooks.
Super Bowl LVII Model Prediction for Eagles-Chiefs
The sportsbooks expect the Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl LVII. They are a 1.5-point favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs, and their implied outright odds sit up at 55% on DraftKings Sportsbook. In contrast, Kansas City’s outright odds sit at 49% there.
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The model disagrees with the market slightly: it favors the Eagles by a 2.6-point margin. But why?
The Eagles have a massive advantage when defending the pass. Their defense leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.11), in no small part because of the pass rush, which ranks second in pressure percentage (25.5%). General manager Howie Roseman spared no expense to load his team’s roster up with talented pass rushers, including Robert Quinn, who the team landed at the trade deadline. In contrast, Kansas City’s passing defense ranks 14th in EPA per dropback (0.03) and fifth in pressure percentage (24.9%).
The model does acknowledge Kansas City’s edge in the passing game. The Chiefs’ offense leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.270). Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes also leads the league in adjusted EPA per play (0.3). But because Mahomes has been dealing with a high ankle sprain, it’s fair to expect him to perform slightly below that level. Mahomes’ adjusted EPA per play since his injury sits at only 0.14. If Mahomes plays at that level in Super Bowl LVII, the model would favor the Eagles by a 6-point margin.
Further, Philadelphia’s offense isn’t much worse than Kansas City’s. The unit ranks first in EPA per rush (0.1) and sixth in EPA per dropback (0.12). Jalen Hurts even ranks a close third in adjusted EPA per play (0.22). Hurts benefits from an elite cast of weapons like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, both of whom can reel in improbable receptions and rack up yards after the catch.
While some have approached Philadelphia with skepticism because of their rushing defense, the Chiefs struggle against the run, too. Philadelphia’s defense ranks 23rd in EPA per rush (-0.04) while Kansas City’s defense ranks 22nd (-0.05). But since the Chiefs’ offense ranks only 10th in EPA per rush (-0.03), they aren’t well-positioned to exploit the Eagles on the ground.
How to Use the NFL Betting Model Predictions for Eagles-Chiefs
The model thinks that taking the Philadelphia Eagles to cover the spread should yield a positive return. However, that doesn’t mean you should head to any book and just slam the Eagles at -1.5. Instead, check out OddsShopper’s tools to make sure that you get the best price. Bettors can currently get the -1.5 at -110 on several books, including BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.
Although the model predicts the Eagles should win the Super Bowl by a 2.6-point margin, that doesn’t necessarily mean they have value as a moneyline pick. Remember, it gives Philadelphia a 56% chance of winning. That means -130 (57%) doesn’t have value but -120 (55%) does. Again, bettors should make sure to check OddsShopper’s tools to confirm that you’re getting a competitive price. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has odds of -120, but the rest of the market has the moneyline set to -125 (56%).
New bettors looking to make sharp bets should be sure to read through the promotions available for Super Bowl LVII. Users who are yet to register at FanDuel, which has a competitive price on the spread, can secure a no-sweat first bet worth up to $3,000. New users at Caesars can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,250 as well. Those yet to register at DraftKings, which leads the market in moneyline odds, can secure $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
More Super Bowl Prediction and Promos
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Eagles-Chiefs Best Bets Tips
