A crucial NFC East battle will go down on Sunday night. The Philadelphia Eagles, who are coming off a tough loss to the San Francisco 49ers, will visit the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. Let’s dive into the best Eagles-Cowboys player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday Night Football, including a Dak Prescott pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Eagles-Cowboys Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Eagles: +155 | Cowboys: -175
Eagles +3: -110 | Cowboys -3: -110
Over 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Eagles-Cowboys Player Prop Pick
Dak Prescott Prop O/U 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
I did not like the situation the Dallas Cowboys were in when the regular season started. Quarterback Dak Prescott in an offense led by Mike McCarthy and ex-Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer? No, thank you. That’s why I locked in a 1.1 unit ticket on Philadelphia to win the division, and, well, so far, so good. That said, I’m still trusting Dak Prescott to do some damage in a must-win home game for the Cowboys if they’re looking to keep the division race alive. Philadelphia’s secondary just hasn’t looked that great.
The main reason I’m targeting Prescott isn’t because I’ve come around on the Cowboys. I’m still skeptical of their ability to perform well against strong secondaries, but, fortunately for them, the Eagles don’t have one. Philadelphia has coughed up the second-most passing touchdowns this year (27), good for 2.3 per game. That’s in no small part because of their defensive line’s ability to stymie opposing ground games in the red zone — opposing running backs have tallied just three rushing scores all season.
I’m also targeting Prescott because he steps up against Philadelphia. Over his last four regular-season starts against the Eagles, Prescott has thrown 14 touchdowns, good for 3.5 per game, notching at least three in each contest. The Eagles haven’t held him to fewer than three touchdown passes since 2019. Prescott also leads the NFL in passing attempts inside the 20-yard line (80) and inside the 10 (38). With him listed at odds of +175 to throw three touchdowns at WynnBET, count me in. If you don’t have WynnBET, the +165 at bet365 is the next-best deal. New users are bet365 can get $150 in bets after betting $5 — or up to $1,000 in bonus bets back if their first wager loses!
Eagles-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns +175 at WynnBET / +165 at bet365
Eagles-Cowboys Model Player Prop
Michael Gallup O/U 13.5 Receiving Yards
Now that you’ve got my pick, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Michael Gallup on the receiving yardage markets because of a big odds disparity between FanDuel Sportsbook (and PointsBet) and the rest of the market. You’ll find the over 13.5 priced at -110 (52.4%) on FanDuel but the 15.5 is priced at (54.1%) on Pinnacle. That’s more than enough value to justify backing the over.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
The model wants action on Gallup because the true odds are -124 (55.4%), which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the -110 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $29. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Eagles-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Michael Gallup over 13.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Eagles-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Since we’re getting action on Dak Prescott to throw for three touchdowns, surely it makes sense to back one of his receivers to find paydirt? With CeeDee Lamb listed at odds of -120 (54.6%) at best, I’m turning my attention to tight end Jake Ferguson.
Let’s play some trivia real quick — who do you think leads the NFL in red-zone targets? With Prescott leading the NFL in red-zone pass attempts, it makes sense that Lamb tops the list 22, but Ferguson isn’t far behind with 20. That’s good for second in the entire NFL. He and Lamb are even tied for the second-most targets inside the 10 (11).
Ferguson owns odds of just +175 at bet365 and WynnBET, better than the +172 at Pinnacle and the price at just about every other book. The next-best line you’ll find is the +170 at Caesars, then we reach the 40% (+150) threshold where I’m not as interested in this play.
Odds and volume aside, Ferguson is a strong pick against this defense. The Eagles have allowed six receiving scores to opposing tight ends, second-most in the NFL and good for 0.5 per game. Ferguson has scored in two of his three appearances against the Eagles, too.
Eagles-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jake Ferguson +175 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 14 now!
