The Philadelphia Eagles will visit the New York Jets on Sunday. Although they’re the road team, their defense should cause problems for the Aaron Rodgers-less New York Jets. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Eagles-Jets betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 6 bet!
Eagles-Jets Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 6
Eagles-Jets Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Eagles: -245 | Jets: +245
Eagles -7: -110 | Jets +7: -110
Over 41.5: -110 | Under 41.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Eagles-Jets Pick & Prediction
Sunday’s Eagles-Jets game could get messy. The New York Jets just hung 31 points on the Denver Broncos, but they entered that contest averaging only 15.5 points per game, and their offense ranks near the bottom in most advanced metrics. On the other side, the Eagles boast a well-above-average offense but have underperformed relative to expectations on defense. However, they have made up for their defensive inefficiency by controlling the clock — the Eagles lead the NFL in plays per game (71.8) and rank 10th in plays allowed per game (61.2). Last week’s game against the Rams saw them embark on multiple drives of five-plus minutes, which, when combined with their red-zone inefficiency, depressed scoring substantially.
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The Eagles should stymie a bad Jets offense on Sunday. New York ranks 18th in expected points added (EPA) per rush and 29th in EPA per dropback, but the offensive line took another big hit with guard Alijah-Vera Tucker now out for the year, which bodes poorly for a unit that already ranked 27th in pass-block win rate (48%) and 13th in run-block win rate (72%). The Jets are not prepared to deal with a Philadelphia defensive line that ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate (54%) and second in run-stop win rate (37%). Quarterback Zach Wilson has completed 42.9% of his throws under pressure this year but completed only 20.4% last year, so expect plenty of New York’s drives to stall out.
But even though the Jets will struggle on offense, their defense should at least cause some problems for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. New York ranks fifth in EPA allowed per rush and 14th in EPA allowed per dropback. The relatively solid defensive front ranks 14th in pass-rush win rate and 16th in run-stop win rate. More importantly, New York’s defense ranks third in red-zone touchdown rate (31.3%), which bodes poorly for a Philadelphia offense that ranks 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (42.1%). Even if the Eagles can drive downfield with ease — or force turnovers from Wilson to set them up in good situations — they’re unlikely to cash in for touchdowns.
We’re playing the under for this one down to the key number of 41. I struggle to see how this game goes over that number barring multiple defensive scores. The Jets will struggle to move the ball much against the Eagles, just as they struggled against the Cowboys, Patriots and Bills. New York was averaging just 12 points per game before Week 4. Meanwhile, the Eagles will likely employ a game plan similar to the one they used last week, which saw them drain the clock on multiple lengthy drives, most of which ended in field goals due to their inefficient red-zone offense. I’m still a believer in this Eagles offense, but the matchup with the Jets isn’t exactly a get-right spot.
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The total for Sunday’s Eagles-Jets game has stayed the exact same throughout the week. The Eagles got some concerning injury news — defensive lineman Jalen Carter is out, as is cornerback Darius Slay. The Jets also got some concerning news with cornerback Sauce Gardner missing Friday’s practice and picking up a questionable tag. Still, these offenses play at a slow enough pace — and have enough depth — for a few injuries to not scare me off the under. I’m not adding more exposure on my end, but if you missed the early week column, it’s not a bad idea to lock in a wager on the under.
Eagles-Jets NFL Week 6 Pick: Under 41.5 -110 at Bet365
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