Don’t you just love it when both starting quarterbacks in a given game are questionable? That’s what we’ve got for this week’s edition of Monday Night Football: Geno Smith is still working his way back from a groin injury, while Jalen Hurts has been dealing with an illness. Let’s dive into the best Eagles-Seahawks player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Monday Night Football, including a Jaxon Smith-Njigba pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Eagles-Seahawks Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Monday
Monday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Eagles: -190 | Seahawks: +160
Eagles -3.5: -110 | Seahawks +3.5: -110
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110
Time: Monday, Dec. 18 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Eagles-Seahawks Player Prop Pick
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Prop O/U 37.5 Receiving Yards
The Seattle Seahawks have a loaded wide receiver room. DK Metcalf is one of the best boundary weapons in the game. Tyler Lockett is a shifty route runner and has been a reliable weapon for years.
But instead of those two, we’re getting our action down on rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Ohio State product has only totaled 493 receiving yards on the year, but tonight’s game looks like a possible breakout spot.
Philadelphia’s defense has been vulnerable to opposing wideouts all season. The Eagles have coughed up the third-most receiving yards to the position on the year (2,519), good for the second-most per game (193.7). They won’t have veteran boundary cornerback Darius Slay this week, which thrusts Kelee Ringo into the mix as a starter. Veteran James Bradberry should spend most of his time on Metcalf, while I suspect the Eagles will use safeties Reed Blankenship and Kevin Byard to help Ringo and prevent Metcalf from taking the top off the defense.
Those factors should combine to leave veteran slot cornerback Bradley Roby without much help when covering Smith-Njigba. Roby hasn’t been great this year — the 31-year-old cornerback owns a PFF grade of just 61, up from the 45.4 he recorded in New Orleans last year but well below his best years. He allowed CeeDee Lamb to catch four passes for 47 yards when directly covering him last week.
The uncertainty surrounding who Seattle will start at quarterback is keeping this line under 40. It shouldn’t be. Drew Lock may throw more interceptions than Geno Smith, but he can still effectively distribute the football. He threw for 269 yards against the San Francisco 49ers last week in his first start for Seattle — more than what San Francisco allows per game (240.3). He (or Smith) now gets a Philadelphia defense that allows 277.8 passing yards per game to the position. I’m playing the standard over and laddering JSN up to 90 (+1000 at DraftKings) through 50 (+170 at DraftKings) and 70 (+450 at DraftKings).
Eagles-Seahawks Player Prop Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -110 at bet365
Eagles-Seahawks Model Player Prop
Kenneth Walker III O/U 10.5 Receiving Yards
You’ve got my pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model likes. It recommends targeting Kenneth Walker III on the receiving yardage markets because of an odds disparity between FanDuel and the rest of the market. You’ll find the under 10.5 priced at -110 (52.4%) on FanDuel but the 8.5 priced at -110 on Pinnacle, a sharp book. That’s just enough value to justify backing the under.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
The model wants action on Love because the true odds are -122 (54.4%), which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the -110 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $24. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Eagles-Seahawks Player Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker III Under 10.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Eagles-Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
We’re going straight back to the well by locking our action down on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to find paydirt tonight. Philadelphia’s defense has allowed the most receiving touchdowns to wideouts this year (23), good for 1.8 per game. The unit has also permitted its opponents an average of 3.4 red-zone trips per game, which ranks 25th.
Smith-Njigba trails both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in red-zone production, but not by as much as you may think. Metcalf boasts 17 targets inside the 20-yard line but only six inside the 10. Lockett has 10 inside the 20 and four inside the 10. JSN has just seven inside the 20 but four inside the 10, good for a share of 14.3% and 25.3%, respectively.
Metcalf owns the shortest odds of Seattle’s receivers to find paydirt on FanDuel at +160 (38.5%). Lockett isn’t far behind at +240 (29.4%). JSN’s price of +290 (25.6%) feels a bit long, especially with Pinnacle taking action on it at +256 (28.1%). That’s more than enough value for me to pounce.
Slot receivers have scored plenty of touchdowns against Philadelphia this year, especially in recent weeks. CeeDee Lamb scored once in Dallas’ win over Philadelphia last week. Jauan Jennings found paydirt for San Francisco before that. Washington’s Jamison Crowder did so a couple of weeks before that, too.
Eagles-Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +290 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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