Eric Lindquist is back, giving his expert NFL prediction on Thursday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. Lindy’s best NFL bet this week focuses on Brian Robinson Jr. and his matchup against the lowly Bears defense.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles and subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 5 now!
Expert NFL Prediction: Bears-Commanders | October 5
Would you look at that: another atrocious football game slated on a Thursday Night! It’s becoming commonplace to feel let down by the mid-week NFL schedule, but fear not friends: betting makes everything better. Especially when you can bet a lock play on one of this season’s cash cows through four weeks, Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr.
The second-year back went for a robust 1,343 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns in 14 games his senior season in the ever-crowded backfield of Alabama. Then after thoroughly impressing to start training camp last August, his season was shortened due to a gunshot would sustained during an attempted robbery/carjacking by two teenagers. A remarkable six weeks later, Robinson was a full-go for the Commanders and finished 2022 with 797 yards on the ground in 12 total games, averaging 66.4 rushing yards per outing.
That form has carried into 2023 as he sits at 65.3 rushing yards on an average of 15.2 totes per game. He’s currently PFF’s 18th-graded running back, and despite being in a time-share with Antonio Gibson. But Gibson manages primarily passing downs and situations. The Commanders enter Thursday Night against the 0-4 Bears as 5.5-point home favorites. That means far more rushing attempts could be in store for Robinson than we’ve seen in Washington’s past two outings considering the blowout nature of those affairs, an evisceration at the hands of the Bills and a narrow Eagles defeat that required more Gibson than normal.
And the matchup — OH, THE MATCHUP.
The lowly Bears defense has given up 383.3 total yards per game (30th in the NFL) and 115.5 rushing yards to opposing backfields an outing (18th). But best of all, Broncos rookie Jaleel McLaughlin is coming off completely exposing them in Week 4 as he rushed for a ridiculous 92 yards in just 13 attempts, going for a 61.5% rushing success rate. So with FanDuel Sportsbook posting just 64.5 rushing yards at standard juice as the line on Robinson’s rushing prop, what are you waiting for? I’m 3-for-3 on the season betting his rushing props on the year and barring injury, that should easily become 4-for-4.
Expert NFL Prediction: Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 64.5 rushing yards (LOCK)
