Week 8 has three spots that are blowing up in the OddsShopper model, including a pair of home underdogs that you better not be looking past this weekend. Here we will turn to OddsShopper to find some expert Week 8 NFL picks for those games, plus another potential high-scoring Dolphins matchup. Now onto the best NFL bets for this Sunday.
Expert Week 8 Picks: Dolphins, Steelers & More
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
The Dolphins just got handled on Sunday Night Football by the Eagles, and now they’ll face a Patriots team coming off their biggest win of the year. It sure seems like there’s some overreaction to Bill Belichick’s 300th career win, though, seeing that this line moved from Dolphins -12 all the way down to -9.5. New England still lacks talent at almost every key position, and it beat a Bills team that has been struggling with significant defensive injuries.
Tua Tagovailoa is undefeated straight up and 5-0 against the spread in five career starts against the Patriots, and this is the most lopsided these teams have been from a talent perspective. He’s also been dominant in three home starts this season, covering big numbers like -14 against the Panthers (+21), -13 against the Giants (+15) and -6 against the Broncos (+50). With this number moving through 10, the value seems to be back on the side of the Dolphins, and that’s where I’ll be looking.
Expert Week 8 Pick: Dolphins -9.5
New York Jets (-3) vs. New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor will be back under center for the Giants this week, which is likely a good thing. In two starts for the injured Daniel Jones, Taylor has limited mistakes and kept the Giants competitive. They won outright last week against a divisional opponent in the Commanders and held the Bills to 0 points through three quarters the previous week before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth and ultimately losing 14-9. But things don’t look as bad right now, and much of that is a result of Taylor’s ability to not commit turnovers. He’s also been sacked on 8% of dropbacks compared to more than 14% for Jones.
The Jets should get Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back this week, and make no mistake about it: This is an elite defense. We shouldn’t sleep on the Giants defense, though, as they’ve allowed only 21 points over the last two weeks, holding both the Commanders and Bill under 300 total yards. They still can’t protect their quarterback, and there’s a long way to go before we can view the Giants as anything other than a below-average team, but they’re getting 3 points at home against a Zach Wilson-led offense on Sunday, and that’s enough for me.
Expert Week 8 Pick: Giants +3, Under 36.5
Best Moneyline Odds: Giants +138 at FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike. Tomlin. Home. Dog.
It’s as simple as that. This bet isn’t going to win every time, but it’s a bet you have to make. In his career, Mike Tomlin is 18-5-3 against the spread at a home underdog, and his Steelers have proven that, despite Kenny Pickett, they can win football games. Don’t look now, but the Steelers are 4-2 on the year, and they were between 2 and 4.5-point underdogs in all four wins. I don’t even hate betting the moneyline. Make sure to always shop around for the best odds on every bet too. At OddsShopper we’re showing Caesars Sportsbook with the best moneyline odds on Pittsburgh at +126.
The Jaguars are playing great football right now, but this is just one of those weeks where we have to back the trends. And the trend couldn’t be any clearer here; Tomlin as a home dog has always been a profitable bet.
Expert Week 8 Pick: Steelers +2.5
Best Moneyline Odds: Steelers +138 at Caesars Sportsbook
