The undefeated San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 New York Giants on Thursday night in what could be an ugly matchup. The 49ers are favored by double digits and look unstoppable on both sides of the ball. Let’s identify the best Giants-49ers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 3’s edition of Thursday Night Football.
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Giants-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Dolphins: -154 | Patriots: +130
Dolphins -2.5: -120 | Patriots +2.5: -102
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110
Giants-49ers Player Prop
Let’s talk about Daniel Jones. The fifth-year quarterback is off to a terrible start to the season, completing 63.1% of his passes for a futile 4.9 net yards per attempt. He has also tossed three interceptions (in his defense, on only two interceptable passes, per PlayerProfiler) through two games. Jones recorded a career-best interception rate of 1.1% last year but owns a career-worst 4.6% so far this year. While some may argue he should regress to the mean, I’m skeptical.
Head coach Brian Daboll has refused to rule out Saquon Barkley as of Wednesday afternoon, which feels more like desperate gamesmanship than sincerity. Barkley was credited as a DNP on Monday and Tuesday and will almost certainly not practice Wednesday. Jones played four games without Barkley in 2021 and averaged one pick per game. When Barkley went down in Week 2 in 2020, Jones averaged 0.6 picks per game.
UPDATE (9/20/23 at 2 p.m. ET): Head coach Brian Daboll ruled Saquon Barkley out almost immediately after publication.
Although Jones doesn’t catch the criticism that Kirk Cousins does for struggling in primetime, he should. Jones is 1-10 as a starter in primetime and is averaging 1.4 picks per game in those contests throughout his career. His completion percentage dives to 61.4% and his QBR to 71.2. The Giants are also a 10-point underdog, and Jones averages 0.91 interceptions per game in losses.
Jones draws a matchup with the elite San Francisco 49ers defense. The 49ers are second-best in the NFL this year with four interceptions, picking off at least one pass in each game, after ranking second in total interceptions last year with 19. We can buy Jones to throw at least one pick at odds of +102 (49.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a fantastic deal that may disappear once Daboll faces the music and rules out Barkley. Lock this in on the Giants-49ers NFL player prop markets for Thursday.
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Giants-49ers Player Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions +102 at FanDuel
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Giants-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Running back Christian McCaffrey played on every offensive snap of San Francisco’s win over Los Angeles. While that usage is encouraging for his ability to find paydirt, it’s also unlikely to recur after a short week of rest. Head coach Kyle Shanahan spoke at length before the season about minimizing risk for the team’s star running back by not overworking him, and I expect that he’ll play far fewer snaps in Week 3.
So who benefits the most from if McCaffrey sits out more snaps? It’s easy to jump to backup running back Elijah Mitchell, but his anytime touchdown scorer odds of +280 (26.3%) at best just don’t stand out to me. Mitchell is yet to receive a red-zone carry or target this year. He also converted just two of his 12 red-zone opportunities last season. Instead, give me fullback Kyle Juszcyzk at +1100 (8.3%) via DraftKings.
Juszcyzk is yet to record a touch or a target this season, but he has played on a whopping 53% of San Francisco’s snaps this year. He has also started both games. Last year, Juszcyzk earned five red-zone carries, one of which he converted for a score, and two red-zone targets, one of which he converted for a score on a pass from Brock Purdy. That’s a far more efficient clip than Mitchell.
Juszcyzk has found paydirt at least once per season with the 49ers and has scored at least twice over his last three seasons. The Giants have already coughed up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (3) but are yet to give up a receiving score to the position. They allowed the 10th-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (13) last year. Look for the 49ers to give McCaffrey some rest on Thursday, opening up a chance or two for Juszcyzk to cash this bet as a longshot.
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Giants-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Kyle Juszcyzk +1100 at DraftKings
