The injury-riddled New York Giants will face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football this week. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Giants-Bills betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 6 bet!
Giants-Bills Pick & Betting Prediction | Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via Bet365
Giants: +750 | Bills: -1200
Giants +15: -110 | Bills -15: -110
Over 44: -110 | Under 44: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants-Bills Pick & Prediction
NFL fans, rejoice! The New York Giants will make their fourth primetime appearance this weekend. They have just one more left on the schedule, a Thursday Night Football contest against the Green Bay Packers, so we’re almost done with watching the Giants flounder in primetime spots. New York has totaled a hilarious 15 points and one touchdown in primetime this year. With starting quarterback Daniel Jones out with a neck injury, it’s possible that the Giants have to roll with backup Tyrod Taylor. No player should be throwing or running from behind this offensive line.
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New York’s blockers are laughably bad. The Giants had to play without starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John-Michael Schmitz last week, and, unsurprisingly, it went terribly. Jones took six sacks, while Taylor took one more. The offensive line now ranks 28th in pass-block win rate (46%) and 17th in run-block win rate (71%), although those numbers don’t fully capture how awful this unit is without Thomas, who missed all of last week’s practices and is already out for Sunday Night Football. To illustrate the severity of the situation, New York’s highest-graded starter along the offensive line in Week 5, guard Mark Glowinski, owns a 51.1. The rest of the starters own grades below 40. Right tackle Evan Neal owns a 36.1.
It goes without saying that you cannot move the football without an offensive line. Last week’s game against the Miami Dolphins still saw the Giants score 16 points, but seven of them came from a pick-six. The Giants averaged 3.9 yards per play for a total of 268 despite possessing the ball for nearly 36 minutes. They’ll now have to line up against a Bills defense that ranks second in pass rush win rate (58%) and ninth in run-stop win rate (33%). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Giants are two-touchdown underdogs for Sunday Night Football, but even that might be giving them too much credit. They own a team total of 13.5 points, but they have reached that threshold just twice all season. Although the Giants are averaging 15.5 points per game, their median point total is 12.
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It will probably take another defensive score for the Giants to surpass their team total of 13.5. I’m not sure how Taylor will move the football against this defense, which, despite suffering serious injuries in recent weeks, still features two elite edge rushers in Leonard Floyd and Von Miller, along with two elite safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The situation is getting dire at cornerback and inside linebacker, but if the Bills can win at the line of scrimmage and get after the quarterback effectively, they could easily shut out the Giants. There will be some growing pains for sure, but who is trusting the Giants to score at least 14 on Sunday? I’m not. I recommended New York’s under at 15.5 in the early week column and am not eager to get more exposure on the 13.5, but it’s a good half-unit wager.
Giants-Bills NFL Week 6 Pick: New York Team Total Under 13.5 -110 at DraftKings
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