After a disastrous primetime outing against the Seattle Seahawks, the New York Giants will head to Florida for a matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who are coming off a blowout loss of their own. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Giants-Dolphins betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Giants-Dolphins Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 5
Giants-Dolphins Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Giants: +500 | Dolphins: -700
Giants +12.5: -110 | Dolphins -12.5: -110
Over 47.5: -114 | Under 47.5: -106
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Giants-Dolphins Pick & Prediction
The New York Giants just got embarrassed in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. They now get to face the Miami Dolphins with a one-day rest disadvantage. New York managed to put only three points on the board against Seattle, but the Giants were without both star running back Saquon Barkley and star left tackle Andrew Thomas. Barkley recorded a PFF grade of 77.2 last year. Thomas recorded an 89.1. It’s safe to say this offense is much better when those two are around, and, while Thomas will remain out, Barkley could return this week.
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The Giants also draw a matchup with one of the NFL’s worst defenses. For as electric as the Dolphins look on offense, their defense has left much to be desired. Miami ranks 27th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 21st in EPA allowed per dropback. The Giants have played just one below-average team in EPA allowed per play, the Arizona Cardinals, and they put up 31 points against them. New York may not have the most effective offense, but with their team total set to a pathetic 16.5, it’s time to buy low.
New York’s offensive struggles stem from an underperforming offensive line, but the matchup with Miami is encouraging. New York ranks 22nd in pass-block win rate (51%) and 17th in run-block win rate (71%). Miami ranks 10th in pass-rush win rate (49%) but only 22nd in pressure percentage (21.2%), and their best pass rusher, Jaelan Phillips, is questionable with an oblique injury. They also rank only 29th in run-stop win rate (28%), which could create some openings for Barkley to exploit — if he returns.
Again, the 16.5 is just too low for any of Miami’s opponents. The Dolphins rank 28th in points allowed per game (29.8) and ranked 23rd last year (24.1). The Dolphins have gone 3-1 to the over so far this season, with only their road game against the Patriots failing to surpass the closing number. Miami is 12-10 to the over since head coach Mike McDaniel’s arrival. New York is 13-9-1 to the under since head coach Brian Daboll took over last season, but the Giants have rarely had to surpass a number this low. Everyone is eager to fade the Giants after they imploded in primetime, but it’s much sharper to anticipate a bounce-back showing — at least in the scoring department.
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This is a rock-bottom team total that seems entirely unjustified in context. Sure, the Giants looked terrible on Monday. That doesn’t change the fact that Miami’s defense has yet to allow fewer than 20 points all season. Yes, even the Denver Broncos, who they blew out by 50 points, still put 20 on the board. Even the New England Patriots, who are just slightly better than the Giants in EPA per play, scored 17. Yes, the offensive line injuries are concerning, but New York can cash the over with just two touchdowns and a field goal. Every team the Dolphins have faced this year has managed at least that.
Giants-Dolphins NFL Week 5 Pick: New York Team Total Over 16.5 -125 at DraftKings
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