It’s been a thrilling weekend of football, but the fun isn’t quite over. We’ve got a Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the action starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Buffalo Bills. As we do with every primetime game, we’re here to dish out the NFL betting advice you need. Read through our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting while you’re here! Without further ado, let’s dive into our Jaguars-Bills player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a model pick for Travis Etienne Jr.
Jaguars-Bills Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | MNF
Jaguars-Bills Model Player Prop Pick for Travis Etienne Jr.
When you bet on sports, what do you do? Do you have a sports betting strategy, or are you just clicking random buttons based on vibes or gut feelings (or, you know, looking up expert advice on the Internet)? If you fall into the latter camp, I recommend rethinking your process.
Forming a consistent routine NFL player prop betting strategy is necessary to start turning a profit on these markets. At OddsShopper, we’ve got a market-based betting model called Portfolio EV. We’re sitting at 272-227 (5.4% ROI) on all NFL bets with an OS Rating of 2 or better. You can even tailor your betting strategy to specific markets of your choice.
If you want to learn more about how to use our sports betting tools, I recommend checking out this article. But you’re here for the picks, so let’s spotlight something that’s trading at the top of our tools for tonight’s Jaguars-Bills game.
Our sports betting strategy depends on volume. You should be placing more bets for less money to minimize the effect of variance. Think of it like an investment portfolio.
That said, this Travis Etienne Jr. player prop is a good one to feature in your sports betting portfolio.
Etienne’s receptions prop clocks in at 3.5 on every major sportsbook. However, most are charging between +105 and +115. Most. FanDuel is charging a far friendlier +16, which is an off-market number we want to target.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “locks” can help you unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Take Portfolio EV for a spin for free simply by signing up with one of our partner sportsbooks or pick’em sites — you can find the full details about this promotion here.
Jaguars-Bills Player Prop Model Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. Over 3.5 Receptions +126 at FanDuel
Jaguars-Bills Player Prop Pick for Christian Kirk
Now that I’ve talked about Portfolio EV, let me talk about Tails by OddsShopper. In addition to (or instead of) placing market-based bets, I make projection-based bets, which I post there to subscribers. Through the Week 3 main slate, we’re sitting at 22-19 (+5.5U).
It hasn’t been the season that the Jacksonville Jaguars or Christian Kirk expected through two games. The team is 0-2, and Kirk has caught just two passes for 29 yards. Those are simply unacceptable results. The good news is that we don’t have to worry about Kirk getting pulled.
A look under the hood reveals that Kirk sports a 100% route participation rate to go with 129 air yards. The slim 15.2% target share is somewhat concerning, especially with Evan Engram out in Week 2, but he still sports a 22.6% air yards share. Kirk record a 22.9% target share and 26.5% air yards share last season.
During media availability this week, quarterback Trevor Lawrence tipped his hand about the possible game plan this week. “He’s a guy I trust a lot, and you’re exactly right. I’ve got to get him going this week,” Lawrence said, adding “I know it’s going to happen.”
Kirk’s receiving yardage prop is set to 39.5 at ESPNBET, and you can buy the over for -120. I’m spreading a unit and a half between the 40 and the 60-plus. Kirk averaged over 65 receiving yards per game last season.
Jaguars-Bills Player Prop Pick: Christian Kirk Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -120 at ESPNBET
Jaguars-Bills Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
I haven’t made up my mind as to whether I’ll include Josh Allen to score a touchdown as a tracked play yet, but it’s hard to trust anyone else to find paydirt for either side.
However, Josh Allen’s odds are a tolerable -110 at DraftKings. He’ll cost you as much as -150 on other books (Caesars). It’s easy to make the case for this bet: the Bills use Allen as the equivalent of their goal-line back. This year, Allen has two carries inside the 10 for two scores.
Allen ran the ball inside the five-yard line 14 times last season and scored on eight of those carries.
I don’t love placing anytime touchdown bets with odds shorter than even, but Allen is the rare player I make an exception for. The Jacksonville defense has already allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season and allowed five last season, including one to Allen last October.
With the odds for this bet varying between -110 and -150, exploit the off-market number at DraftKings. Pricing disparities like this one make for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Jaguars-Bills Anytime Touchdown Bet: Josh Allen -110 at DraftKings
