The Jacksonville Jaguars will visit the New Orleans Saints on Thursday. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable but expects to play, but the Jaguars activated third-string quarterback Nathan Rourke from the practice squad on Wednesday afternoon. I already have action on the moneyline for this one, but let’s dive into the best Jaguars-Saints player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 7’s Thursday Night Football contest. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Jaguars-Saints Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Jaguars: +100 | Saints: -120
Jaguars +1: -110 | Saints -1: -110
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
Time: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Jaguars-Saints Player Prop
The Jacksonville Jaguars have an offensive line problem. Although it’s not as obvious as some other teams because Trevor Lawrence has been able to evade pressure, the Jaguars rank a dreadful 32nd in pass-block win rate (44%). Their best offensive lineman by PFF grade, left guard Walker Little, has been ruled out for Thursday’s game, too. Right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable after barely managing one limited practice session this week. The injuries at guard will leave tackles Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison, who own grades of 60.4 and 57.6, respectively, without much help from the interior.
It’s unclear whether the Jaguars will have quarterback Trevor Lawrence on Thursday. If they do, they’ll have a version of Lawrence who is likely less mobile than usual — he just suffered a knee injury on Sunday, after all. If they don’t, then C.J. Beathard is up next. Beathard isn’t known for his sack avoidance — his last two starts, which came in 2020, saw him take three sacks apiece. He is averaging 3.4 sacks per game over 12 starts, which is a slightly higher rate than the 2.7 we’ve seen from Lawrence this season. The New Orleans defensive line should have plenty of chances to bring down whoever is under center on Thursday night.
The Saints have struggled to generate pressure this season, as they rank 32nd in pass-rush win rate (30%), but they’ll get a chance to go off against a struggling and injury-depleted Jaguars offensive line on Thursday night. Defensive end Carl Granderson leads the team in sacks (4.5), but he has generated the same number of pressures as fellow defensive end Cameron Jordan (10). Although Jordan has only generated one sack on those pressures, he should get home for at least a half-sack on Thursday. He has finished with at least one half-sack twice this season and did so in seven of his 16 starts last year.
Jaguars-Saints Player Prop Pick: Cameron Jordan Over 0.25 Sacks +154 at DraftKings
Jaguars-Saints Model Player Prop
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. The model indexes the odds across several different sportsbooks, adjusts for the disparities between sportsbook quality, removes hold and generates a win probability for each bet. You can subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for 20% by using coupon code “ISIROIS” at checkout. Now let’s look at its top Thursday Night Football wager:
So what do all of these numbers mean? The model wants action on the under for tight end Evan Engram’s receiving yards. The market hasn’t settled on a total for his receiving yardage — it ranges from 45.5 to 41.5. The sharper books are on the under. The OddsShopper Rating of 18 means that this is one of the model’s strongest plays, and the true odds of -129 mean that we’re getting a solid deal relative to the -110 at Bet365 and the -114 at FanDuel. The bet size of $49 uses the Kelly criterion to calculate how much a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager.
Jaguars-Saints Player Prop Pick: Evan Engram Under 44.5 Receiving Yards -110 at bet365
Jaguars-Saints Anytime Touchdown Scorer
I have more faith in the New Orleans Saints in this spot than I do in the Jacksonville Jaguars, especially with Trevor Lawrence. As such, I’m trusting a member of New Orleans’ offense to find paydirt: wide receiver and return specialist Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed has racked up three touchdowns this year, two receiving and one return, across six games. He isn’t a high-volume red-zone threat, as he has just two targets and one score inside the 20-yard line, but he has breakaway speed that can turn any catch into a score.
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The odds for Shaheed to score vary wildly — you’ll find him as short as +235 at Caesars but as long as +350 at FanDuel. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at odds of only +278. Shaheed has multiple catches for 40-plus yards this season, and he’ll line up against a Jaguars defense that has coughed up the third-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts (7), the sixth-most receiving yards to wideouts (1,080) and the third-most overall yards after the catch (796). The Jaguars have ruled out cornerback Tyson Campbell as well, which could create more problems in the secondary.
Jaguars-Saints Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Rashid Shaheed +350 at FanDuel
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