I’m going to be blunt: This game reeks. Granted, most Thursday Night Football matchups reek, but this one? This one got that STANK to it. But you know I wouldn’t leave you dirty, lovely degenerates without some NFL picks and predictions to get you some action by way of a Jaguars Saints same-game parlay bet.
Full disclosure, with this game being hot garbage, I’m going to get a little spicy here and play this one a little more for fun than anything else. Just so we can have a little Thursday Night Football sweat.
For tonight’s Jaguars-Saints parlay bet, we’re going full degen and rocking a five-leg parlay on bet365, and they were gracious enough to give us a 50% profit boost as well. So when it’s all said and done, it’ll be a five-leg, +315 same game parlay. Let’s rock.
Jaguars-Saints Same Game Parlay Bet for Thursday Night Football
Travis Etienne o85.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (TNF Player Prop)
Quick, how many times has Travis Etienne gone over 80 combined rushing and receiving yards this season? Four times in six games, and he’s hit that mark in three of his last four. But Nathan, the number is 85.5 not 80. Yeah, bro, I know, but I don’t really care. That’s not much of a difference, and that gap scares me not. The Jacksonville running back has 246 over his last three games and is averaging right at 4 yards per carry. He’s even caught 10 passes in the span for 83 yards. Plus, our guy has been getting WORK in the last three games! Like, 25 touches a game work. If you’re telling me I’m going to get in the 22- to 25-touches range from Etienne, with possibly more work should Trevor Lawrence be banged up for real … I’m taking that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Christian Kirk 25+ Receiving Yards (Alt Player Prop)
All right, someone has to say it: Christian Kirk is the No. 1 wide receiver on the Jacksonville Jaguars. God. That felt good to say out loud. Look, I’m a Calvin Ridley stan too, but … he ain’t their No. 1. Kirk has been a target hog this season, having no fewer than six targets in every game since Week 1, and that really seemed like they were trying to show off their new toy and justify their acquisition of Ridley. Kirk is top 15 in targets this season (49) and has games with as many as 12 and 14 looks from Lawrence. We took the alternate number here of 25-plus receiving yards, which Kirk has gone over in all but one game this year. Even if Lawrence is dealing with an injury that might stop him from throwing as much, Kirk should see enough volume to get him over the 25-yard hump.
Chris Olave 25+ Receiving Yards (Alt Player Prop)
It’s pretty incredible that the best defense against Chris Olave is his own quarterback. Derek Carr is the WOAT. So we’re going with the double-reverse defense here and bringing this Olave receiving prop all the way down to 25 yards. Olave has been targeted 53 times this season, which we do love to see. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (1,622 yards), which isn’t great, Bob. But I’m still stunned by the fact that Carr couldn’t get him over the 25-yard mark in TWO games already this season. So let’s just sit with the 25-plus yards. And yes, this is basically “Derek Carr is trash” insurance.
Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 (Alt Spread)
I’ve heard the cries of all you goblins asking for me to pick more sides and totals. See, I’m a man of the people, and I live to serve! So let’s tinker with the spread here and shift in a way that we like a little bit more. The Jaguars are 4-2, with the only loss of 8 or more being that absolute cucking they took from the Texans (37-17) in Week 3. The Jaguars are +1.5 as it is, but there are a few variables for this game, the first being the Trevor Lawrence knee injury. We’re not sure how severe it is, but he did log a limited practice on Tuesday. And the Jags are coming back from spending almost three whole weeks in London. So how will they respond after traveling back and getting readjusted? I can’t say with great confidence they’ll cover the 1.5. And I’ll do you one more — the only game the Saints have won by MORE than 3 points was a 34-0 dog-walking of the Patriots, which at this point shouldn’t be considered anything because New England is rubbish.
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (Kicker Prop)
Ah, yes, we’re going to get REAL funky here and throw in a kicker prop. I mean, who doesn’t love a good kicker prop in a parlay? If you ain’t bettin’ kicker props in parlays, you ain’t livin’. Now, realistically, over 1.5 field goals is a pretty low threshold, so we’re not getting TOO weird. The Saints have attempted three or more field goals in half their games and are averaging 2.66 field goal attempts per game. The Jags haven’t been kicking as many field goals, but they’ve actually attempted three or more field goals more times than New Orleans (4 times in 6 games) this season. It should be a pretty simple task to get two total field goals here. Especially with the chance of both of these offenses stalling out from about the 40-yard-line and in. The game total is sitting at 40, so it seems points might be a premium tonight, which makes me lean towards coaches wanting to get a scratch whenever they can.
Final Jaguars-Saints Same-Game Parlay Bet for Thursday Night Football
Leg 1: Travis Etienne 85+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (TNF Player Prop)
Leg 2: Christian Kirk 25+ Receiving Yards (Alt TNF Player Prop)
Leg 3: Chris Olver 25+ Receiving Yards (Alt TNF Player Prop)
Leg 4: Jaguars +8.5 (Alt Spread)
Leg 5: Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (Kicker Prop)
= +315 bet365 Sportsbook (w/50% Boost)
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 7 now!
