It’s been an excellent opening week of football, and Sunday night’s overtime thriller was no exception. But can Monday Night Football live up to that standard? I hope so. If you need more NFL betting advice, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Jets-49ers player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet, including a model pick for Jauan Jennings!
Jets-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | MNF
Jets-49ers Player Prop Pick for Jauan Jennings
When you place bets, are you thinking about the strategy behind them? I recommend that you start thinking about NFL player prop betting strategy. Some bets are better than others, and if you want to start making money from sports betting (or you want to start making more money) we can help.
This year, I want to encourage you to place more bets for less money. Think about sports betting strategy in terms of winning more bets than you lose than in terms of finding up can’t miss plays — or finding touts who are shelling out can’t miss plays. Professional gamblers are happy to win 60% of their plays.
Let’s talk about how we can use a market-based betting strategy to find sharp plays.
Consider this Jauan Jennings player prop at FanDuel. The line for this bet ranges from 15.5 to 19.5, but the price for the over doesn’t vary nearly as much. The over 19.5 is -120 at BetMGM while the over 15.5 is -125 at Fanatics.
That said, FanDuel has the line at a low-end 16.5, and we’re getting it for only -110. Although that difference in implied probability is not that wide, it’s meaningful enough to warrant exploiting with a small wager.
The market-based sports betting model tells us that this Jennings prop should have odds of -116, which beats the number we’re getting at FanDuel by enough for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $10 on this +EV bet.
This one bet won’t change your life, but a lot of bets like it wagered over the long run might.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “can’t-miss bets” can unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Keep reading to see how you can take our tools for a spin for 15% off!
Jets-49ers Player Prop Model Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 16.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Jets-49ers Player Prop Pick for Breece Hall
The New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers have the unenviable task of squaring off against the San Francisco 49ers on the road this evening. The Jets will look to keep Rodgers upright after failing to do so disastrously in last year’s season opener.
One way the Jets can keep Rodgers upright against an aggressive San Francisco defense: quick passes. Although the pass blocking should be better, I still expect plenty of dump-offs and screens from Rodgers this evening.
Running back Breece Hall should be the prime beneficiary of Rodgers’ short throws. Hall averaged 47.5 receiving yards per game last year despite playing only a few snaps per game early in the year, and we know he is explosive enough to take any reception to the house.
You’ll find Hall’s receiving yardage prop set between 25.5 and 29.5 across the market. Since the 49ers allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to running backs last year (36.8), that number feels a bit on the low side.
Let’s trust Hall to post at least 26 receiving yards for the discounted price of -120 at Fanatics.
Jets-49ers Player Prop Pick: Breece Hall Over 25.5 Receiving Yards -120 at Fanatics
Jets-49ers Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
If you’re looking for a sharp anytime touchdown scorer bet for Monday Night Football, look no further than the man Rodgers asked the Jets to bring in: wide receiver Allen Lazard.
In Rodgers’ last full season of NFL action, Lazard racked up 17 red-zone targets, of which four turned into scores. Importantly, he also racked up 10 targets inside the 10-yard line.
While we’re yet to see how much rust Rodgers has to shake off — and how the Jets will divvy up the snaps at wideout, the only player we’ve seen him have chemistry with near the goal line is Lazard.
Lazard clocks in at anytime touchdown scorer odds of +600 on Fanatics. That’s just a squeeze too long to leave off the card. Take advantage of this price and hope the Jets get a couple shots at the red zone.
Jets-49ers Anytime Touchdown Bet: Allen Lazard +600 at Fanatics
