The New York Jets will take on the Denver Broncos this Sunday in what’s proving to be an interesting revenge spot — New York’s players apparently want “revenge” for Denver’s head coach’s comments about New York offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Jets-Broncos betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Jets-Broncos Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 5
Jets-Broncos Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jets: +112 | Broncos: -132
Jets +2.5: -110 | Broncos -2.5: -110
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Jets-Broncos Pick & Prediction
The New York Jets will visit the Denver Broncos this week, and for the third time this season, we’re getting action on the team total for Denver’s opponent. Denver is 3-1 to the over this year, but their opponents are averaging an NFL-high 37.5 points per game. While the 70-point performance from the Miami Dolphins partially explains why that number is so high, the Broncos also coughed up 28 to the Bears and 35 to the Commanders. Only the Las Vegas Raiders failed to clear 28. With New York’s team total trading at only 20.5, I’m locking in the over before that number ticks up.
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Denver’s defense is jaw-droppingly bad. The Broncos and 32nd in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Injuries may explain some of their struggles, as safety Justin Simmons, edge rusher Frank Clark and inside linebacker Josey Jewell have all missed time. All three will return, but now edge rusher Randy Gregory is gone. Denver is also bailing out its opponents with penalties — the Broncos rank 30th in penalties per game (8.3). Denver has also failed to control the clock effectively, as the Broncos have allowed their opponents to average the 23rd-most plays per game (65.5) and the eighth-highest time of possession (32:11).
New York’s offense isn’t efficient, but Zach Wilson deserves some credit for looking better than expected on Sunday Night Football. The Jets lost, but it wasn’t his fault, and he even ranked as the 17th-best quarterback in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score. I’m not adjusting my Wilson priors after one good game, but, when you consider he was supposed to back up Aaron Rodgers in a new-look offense designed by new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his abysmal performance to this point is slightly more forgivable. Further, buying the over for New York’s team total doesn’t mean we’re putting our faith in Wilson to actually win — we just need him to beat up on the NFL’s worst defense.
I’m also justifying my exposure to New York’s team total because of the Denver defense’s complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Denver ranks 32nd in both pass-rush win rate (30%) and pressure percentage (14%). The terrible Jets offensive line has allowed Wilson to face pressure 34.3% of the time because it ranks just 27th in pass-block win rate (47%), so this weekend’s matchup is a welcome reprieve. Wilson isn’t a great quarterback, but his clean pocket completion percentage this year (58.2%) is dramatically better than his pressured completion percentage (29.4%), and the total is low enough for me to plug my nose and trust him.
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Lastly, let’s not forget the narrative angle here. The Jets offense will be showing out for their offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, after what Broncos head coach Sean Payton said about him in the offseason. That’s prime bulletin board material. The Jets are drawing plenty of action to cover the spread in this one, with them drawing 82% of the cash on 81% of the tickets, per Pregame, but they’ll need to put points on the board to get that done. Look for this group to get at least 21 on Sunday.
Jets-Broncos NFL Week 5 Pick: New York Team Total Over 20.5 -115 at BetMGM
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