The eliminated New York Jets will visit the very much not-eliminated Cleveland Browns tonight. The Browns still have an outside shot at winning the AFC North — 3%, to be exact — and own a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Let’s dive into the best Jets-Browns player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football, including a Breece Hall pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Jets-Browns Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Jets: +280 | Browns: -350
Jets +7.5: -110 | Browns -7.5: -110
Over 34: -110 | Under 34: -110
Time: Thursday, Dec. 28 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Jets-Browns Player Prop Pick
Myles Garrett Prop O/U 0.5 Sacks
Sometimes defensive props are just the way to go. The Cleveland Browns are listing Amari Cooper as questionable, which makes their offense hard to handicap. The Jets have no big-name players listed as questionable, but I don’t trust their offense.
Although journeyman quarterback Trevor Siemian managed to not take a single sack last week, he still has five on the year, all of which came in relief appearances. I expect him to take at least one sack from Myles Garrett tonight.
It’s a favorable game script for this pick. The Jets are multi-score underdogs, which means they’ll be passing early and often. Their inefficient offense still ranks 12th in seconds per play, which should give Garrett plenty of chances to bring Siemian down. The weather forecast in Cleveland is mild as well, with above-freezing temperatures, no precipitation and little wind on tap, which means the Jets won’t just try to run the ball with Breece Hall all night.
Garrett is also one of the best pass rushers in the game. He ranks second among all edge rushers in pass rush win rate (28%), behind only Micah Parsons. He has generated the 12th-most total quarterback pressures (32), good for 2.1 per game, and the seventh-most sacks (13).
The Jets’s offensive line is not good, especially at tackle. The unit ranks 26th in pass-block win rate (51%). Left tackle Mekhi Becton owns a dreadful PFF grade of 56.6 and is responsible for 11 sacks allowed. Right tackle Carter Warren owns a grade of 49.1 and is responsible for four sacks in just 265 snaps.
Jets-Browns Player Prop Pick: Myles Garrett Over 0.5 Sacks -150 at ESPNBet
Jets-Browns Model Player Prop
Breece Hall O/U 4.5 Receptions
You’ve gotten my pick for tonight’s Jets-Browns game, so let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model likes. It recommends buying Breece Hall on the reception markets because of an odds disparity between bet365 and the rest of the market.
You’ll find Hall listed at odds of +125 to record at least five receptions on bet365. No other book has a line that long. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at +101. FanDuel lists it at -106, while DraftKings has it at -110.
The model works by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness, hold and other factors, then generating a fair market price, also called true odds. In this case, the true odds of this wager clock in at +111 — better than the price at bet365 and ESPNBet.
However, the model would only play this line at those books. If you’re tempted to hit the same bet at DraftKings or FanDuel, don’t — you aren’t getting the same edge there as at bet365.
We’re getting enough positive expected value on the +125 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $23 on the over. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Jets-Browns Player Prop Pick: Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions +125 at bet365
Jets-Browns Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I’m going to keep things simple with our Jets-Browns anytime touchdown scorer selection. Running back Jerome Ford has played quite well in relief of Nick Chubb, and he gets a New York Jets defense that has coughed up 11 rushing scores (10th most) and four receiving scores (fifth most) to his position.
Ford hasn’t played a massive role in the red zone, but the Browns have steadily begun to trust him more and more close to the goal line. Ford has now toted the rock 15 times inside the 20-yard line, nine times inside the 10 and four inside the five. He may trail Kareem Hunt in red-zone volume still, but that doesn’t excuse where his touchdown scorer odds are trading.
You’ll find Ford priced at +210 (32.3%) to score a touchdown at Fanatics and PointsBet. Aside from FanDuel, which lists him at +200 (33.3%), no other public books have Ford any shorter than +150 (40%). BetMGM even has Ford at +110 (48.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Ford at +191 (34.4%), so we’re even getting a marginal edge over them.
This game’s total of just 34 points underestimates the ease with which the Browns should move the ball against a dispirited Jets squad. The Jets give up the ninth-most rushing yards per game (126.2). They allowed only 102 to the Washington Commanders last week, but considering the Commanders were in a three-score hole before the end of the first quarter, that’s not that impressive. Take advantage of the odds disparity and back Ford to find paydirt on Thursday.
Jets-Browns Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jerome Ford +210 at Fanatics
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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