The 2024 NFC Championship Game is right around the corner, and the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers will do battle for a bid to the Super Bowl. Will Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan get redemption after their brutal loss in this spot last year, or will Jared Goff and Dan Campbell get the Lions to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance? Let’s dive into the best Lions-49ers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Christian McCaffrey. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Lions-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | 2024 NFC Championship Game
Lions-49ers Odds for Sunday
Odds via BetMGM
Lions: +275 | 49ers: -350
Lions +7: +100 | 49ers -7: -120
Over 52: -110 | Under 52: -110
Time: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 6:40 p.m. ET
Lions-49ers Player Prop Pick
Christian McCaffrey O/U 34.5 Receiving Yards
The Detroit Lions boast one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses. The Lions’ rushing defense currently ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play. The unit led the NFL in rushing yards allowed to running backs per game (60.5) as well.
Christian McCaffrey has the unenviable task of facing Detroit’s defense, but the veteran running back should do plenty of damage as a receiver. Detroit’s defense ranked just 15th in receiving yards allowed per game to the position (30.9).
Screen passes and dump-offs to running backs have hurt the Lions all season. The Baltimore Ravens got an 80-yard reception from running back Gus Edwards versus the Lions. The Green Bay Packers got a 22-yard catch from AJ Dillon on his way to 38 receiving yards, one of his best games in the metric ever. Alvin Kamara put together 58 receiving yards with a longest reception of 13. Rachaad White got 36 receiving yards last week with a longest reception of 12.
While Detroit’s defense is likelier to pay more attention to McCaffrey as a receiver, than, say, Edwards or Dillon, Kamara and White’s solid performances point to value here. Both players are at their best as receivers, and Detroit struggled to find answers to their game. With legitimate downfield receivers to worry about in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, McCaffrey could get loose for a few big gains as a receiver.
I bought McCaffrey to go over 34.5 receiving yards for -110 at FanDuel. Most other books, including Pinnacle, are selling this prop at 36.5 with the juice stacked on the over. I’m also laddering McCaffrey to go for 50-plus through the air (+210 at FanDuel). The game script is my primary concern with this pick, as we’ll need Detroit to keep things close, so hopefully the 49ers get out to a slow start as they did versus the Packers.
Lions-49ers Player Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 34.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Lions-49ers Model Player Prop
Jahmyr Gibbs O/U 22.5 Receiving Yards
With my top Lions-49ers player prop pick out of the way, let’s talk about what OddsShopper’s Premium tools recommend you buy. Our model works for the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB — as well as other sports — so no matter what time of year it is, you’re getting sharp bets to build your bankroll.
The model wants action on running back Jahmyr Gibbs on the receiving yardage market. Specifically, it wants action on him to go over 22.5 receiving yards. Gibbs has beaten that number in both of Detroit’s playoff games. He is averaging 23.5 receiving yards per game this year, too,
So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, the model wants action on Gibbs because 22.5 will cost you only -110 at FanDuel, which is worse than the true odds of -119. With Pinnacle taking action on the over 23.5 at -133, FanDuel has hung a very beatable line — as has PointsBet, where the over 20.5 will cost you only -120. Take advantage of these soft numbers before they disappear!
Lions-49ers Player Prop Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Lions-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I have the 49ers winning this game (you can read more about why here), but I don’t see much value on their anytime touchdown scorer markets. Christian McCaffrey will cost you a chalky -300, which you should not bet. So, let’s turn to the Detroit Lions instead.
The San Francisco 49ers rank an impressive fourth in red-zone scoring attempts allowed per game (2.7) and a steady 12th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (53.1%). Detroit may not get to the red zone often, which somewhat underpins this pick.
Speedy wide receiver Jameson Williams can score from anywhere on the field. He averaged 14.8 yards per reception in the regular season and is averaging 13.5 in the postseason. He scored a flashy 45-yard touchdown against the Buccaneers in the regular season along with a 32-yard touchdown against the Bears.
The 49ers, as good as they are, gave up a few explosive touchdowns this year. Jordan Addison scored a 60-yard touchdown against them in the regular season. DK Metcalf scored a 31-yard touchdown of his own later in the year, too. The 49ers gave up deep passes to Romeo Doubs (38) and Jayden Reed (27) last week, too, although neither went for scores.
Williams probably won’t score on Sunday, but because he is trading at generous odds of +425 at SuperBook (+400 at BetMGM, if you don’t have access to the former site), I’m happy with making him our top anytime touchdown scorer pick this week. If you’re yet to sign up at BetMGM, new users can get $158 in bonus bets just for wagering $5!
Lions-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jameson Williams +425 at SuperBook
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