It’s here. The 2023 NFL season will finally get underway on Thursday, and we’ve got the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs taking on the up-and-coming Detroit Lions. Will head coach Dan Campbell’s Lions bite a kneecap off, or Andy Reid’s Chiefs prove that they can dominate opponents even with a less talented cast around Patrick Mahomes? Let’s dig into Thursday’s Lions-Chiefs betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 1 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost for Lions-Chiefs at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our Week 1 picks and our power rankings. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Lions-Chiefs Pick, Betting Prediction & FanDuel Boost | Thursday Night Football NFL Week 1
Lions-Chiefs Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Lions: +190 | Chiefs: -200
Lions +5.5: -110 | Chiefs -5.5: -105
Over 52.5: -112 | Under 52.5: -108
Lions-Chiefs Pick & Prediction
In the 2023 season opener, the Detroit Lions will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. It’s been an eventful offseason for both teams, but the Chiefs may have gotten worse than we fully appreciate. Gone are both of last year’s starting tackles, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, and replacing them are two worse performers, per PFF: Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both gone, too, with only a possibly-still-injured Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson left to pick up the slack. On defense, defensive end Frank Clark is gone, and tackle Chris Jones is still holding out. Now tight end Travis Kelce might miss Week 1, too.
Check out our NFL picks and predictions for Week 1! >>
Everybody is still in love with the Chiefs after their impressive Super Bowl performance. They lead in the power rankings at almost every site — not this one, though — largely because of the elite combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. But let’s not forget that Mahomes has struggled behind bad offensive lines before, which is why the Chiefs sprung to acquire Brown in the first place. It’s well within the realm of possibilities that the Chiefs are trading at the highest price they’ll trade all season because of how much has changed in the offseason. Jones scored a PFF grade of 92 last year while Clark scored a 67.2. The Chiefs have no one of that caliber behind them who is ready to take over.
The Lions, meanwhile, actually got better in the offseason — but they were already pretty good, too. Detroit’s offense ranked a steady sixth (0.07) in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2022. Although Detroit still trailed Kansas City’s league-leading unit (0.18), they showed more than enough potential, especially with several key pieces like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown missing time. Detroit’s defense ranked a putrid 31st (0.08) in EPA allowed, well behind 15th-ranked Kansas City (0), but the Lions added some pieces to help change that. Cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley are now in town, as are rookie linebacker Jack Campbell and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Who knows where the Chiefs are trading at by kickoff, but if you can get the Lions plus anything more than a field goal, that’ll be hard to pass up. The Chiefs are good, Mahomes is great, but the market is far too high on a much worse Kansas City squad. Also, the Chiefs weren’t so great against the spread last year, anyway — they went only 8-11-1 and were just 3-6-1 at home. It feels weird to fade the defending Super Bowl champions at home, but just remember what happened to the Los Angeles Rams last season after they hemorrhaged talent on both sides of the ball.
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Lions-Chiefs NFL Week 1 Pick: Detroit +5.5 -115 at FanDuel
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