The weekend kicks off in Dallas with a lone primetime game featuring two of the best offenses in the NFC. The Detroit Lions come off a necessary but far from convincing win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Cowboys are unstoppable at home, where they have scored at least 30 points per game with an unblemished record. There should be no shortage of scores tonight as the Cowboys bring in the best home offense in the league, while the Lions have scored 30-plus in five of their last seven games. Here are the best first touchdown picks and bets for Saturday’s Lions-Cowboys game! If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our Lions-Cowboys player props, our NFL betting tools or our NFL betting promos.
Lions-Cowboys First Touchdown Picks for Saturday
Detroit Lions First Touchdown Scorer
This game is already a shootout hours before kickoff. The betting public seems to have this game somewhere in the 60s as a combined total, where the Lions need an early score to set the tone. At the very least, they need an early touchdown to keep pace with this high-powered Cowboys offense. It should start on the ground against a beatable Dallas run defense. The Lions’ offensive line looks as healthy as it gets this late in the season and is in a great position to attack Dallas in the second and third levels of their defense.
Getting the ball to both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should be Detroit’s top priority, mixing the touches as early as their opening drive. Gibbs’ pass-catching ability and overall explosiveness puts him ahead of Montgomery when choosing the first score. We also find him at 9-1 at PointsBet thanks to OddsShopper’s live odds tool. Dallas is dealing with some injury issues up front which only makes it easier for Detroit to commit to the ground game. Be it ground mail or air delivery, we expect Gibbs to cross the goal line first.
Lions-Cowboys First Touchdown Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs +900 at PointsBet for 0.25 Units
OddsShopper’s betting model found a key pricing disparity in the odds for this Lions-Cowboys game. Wide receiver Jalen Tolbert is -110 on FanDuel to go over 15.5 receiving yards, which is below the true odds of -125. That makes this wager on Tolbert a +EV Bet by 6%. For the rest of our model’s projections — more than just the NFL — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!
Dallas Cowboys First Touchdown Scorer
Everyone in the solar system knows CeeDee Lamb will get the ball. It’s been the worst-kept secret all year, especially at home. Prescott should throw the ball 35-plus times, as he is averaging that many pass attempts over seven home games. Clearly, passes will be thrown to Lamb — but that’s reflected in the return for backing him to score first. The other two options from a receiving standpoint are Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks. Tony Pollard is too chalky at 7-1 to take, and he has gone scoreless in three straight games.
The angle here is finding the “other” receiver that gets the first score, as the Lions will be heavily focused on slowing down Lamb. Granted, that strategy has truly yet to pay off, but Detroit cannot compete without some level of extra help on Lamb. Prescott is playing out of his mind right now and will immediately pick up on solo or busted coverage off Lamb. Detroit’s defensive focus on Lamb could help Prescott connect with Ferguson a few extra times. The Cowboys’ tight end is a dangerous asset in the red zone, adding to his 10-1 value to score first.
Lions-Cowboys First Touchdown Picks: Jake Ferguson +1000 at BetMGM for 0.25 Units
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