This Saturday night, the Detroit Lions will visit the Dallas Cowboys in a crucial NFC battle. Both the Lions and Cowboys have locked up playoff spots, but now it’s a question of seeding. The Lions can finish anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 3 seeds, while the Cowboys can earn the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 5 seeds. They have an 88% chance of winding up at No. 5. Let’s dive into the best Lions-Cowboys player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for Aidan Hutchinson. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Lions-Cowboys Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Saturday
Lions-Cowboys Odds for Saturday
Odds via bet365
Lions: +205 | Cowboys: -250
Lions +5.5: -120 | Cowboys -5.5: +100
Over 52.5: -110 | Under 52.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Dec. 30 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Lions-Cowboys Player Prop Pick
Aidan Hutchinson O/U 0.25 Sacks
Star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is having a weird season. He has racked up an NFL-high 50 pressures but has only 6.5 sacks to show for them. Last year, only Nick Bosa generated more than 50 pressures, and he finished the year with 18.5 sacks.
I expect some positive regression to benefit Hutchinson — and soon. Since 2019, no player has recorded 50 pressures without also tallying at least double-digit sacks. Hutchinson may not crack double digits, but he should at least get closer.
The matchup is surprisingly good for Hutchinson. Although the Cowboys have been known for their ferocious offensive line for years, right tackle Terence Steele is a liability. He has allowed seven sacks with a PFF grade of 50.9. Star left tackle Tyron Smith is still a powerhouse, but he is questionable after only getting in one practice session — a limited one — this week.
If the Cowboys have to start Steele and Tyler Smith at tackle, things could get ugly. The Miami Dolphins sacked Dak Prescott four times with that arrangement last week. The Los Angeles Rams racked up three sacks against that front earlier in the year, too. The Cowboys rank only 18th in pass-block win rate (57%) overall this year, so they can’t afford any absences.
Lions-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.25 Sacks +114 at DraftKings
Lions-Cowboys Model Player Prop
Jalen Tolbert O/U 15.5 Receiving Yards
Now that you’ve checked out my pick, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Jalen Tolbert on the receiving yards market because of a big odds disparity between FanDuel, Fanatics and the rest of the rest of the market.
You’ll find the over 15.5 priced at -110 (52.4%) on FanDuel and Fanatics. However, bet365 lists the over 18.5 for the same price. Caesars even has the over 18.5 at -113 (53%).
Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 18.5 at -115 (53.5%). Using all that data, our model estimates the true odds — or a breakeven price — for the over 15.5 to be -125 (55.6%).
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold.
The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results and the testimonials below!
Lions-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Jalen Tolbert Over 15.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Lions-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL in targets inside the 20-yard line and the 10-yard line. You’ll find him priced at -150 (60%) at the lowest to find the end zone on Saturday night. That’s exactly the rate at which Lamb has found the end zone this year, as he has scored in nine of 15 games. I don’t mind playing that number, but I want to buy something with a better return.
But who trails Lamb in those metrics? It may surprise you, but Jake Ferguson — his teammate — ranks second in targets inside the 20 and third in targets inside the 10 (Tyreek Hill is tied with Lamb for first). Ferguson has only scored in five of 15 games this year, or 33%, and owns odds of +137 (42.2%) to find paydirt at bet365.
The Cowboys should get plenty of chances in the red zone. The Lions rank 24th in red-zone chances allowed per game (3.3). Importantly, they also rank tied for 27th in receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends (6). With Dak Prescott targeting Ferguson at such a high clip in the red zone, he should convert one for his sixth score of the year.
Lions-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jake Ferguson +137 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 17 now!
