The Lions and Packers could be fighting for a Wild Card spot tonight — or this game could end up meaning nothing for Detroit. Plus, weather reports suggest freezing temperatures in Green Bay, making this a great day to use OddsShopper to find a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football. Today’s Lions-Packers parlay comes from PointsBet and is looking at a potential run-focused game flow.
As always, don’t forget to use OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder, the best resource there is for parlays on any NFL slate.
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Lions-Packers Parlay: Week 18 Sunday Night Football
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A.J. Dillon Over 40.5 Yards Rushing (-125)
The weather in Green Bay is expected to be a classic January Lambeau game, with temperatures in the mid-20s. Obviously, that lends some credence to any rushing overs, yet Dillon’s line is set considerably lower than D’Andre Swift’s, Jamaal Williams’ and Aaron Jones’. At the moment, OddsShopper views Dillon’s over as the best value of the four primary backs.
Dillon has hit this line at just above a 50% rate (9 of 16 games), but the weather is giving a sizeable bump to his projection on Stokastic. He projects for 57.3 yards rushing, more than Swift and Williams, and at a 73% win rate, this is OddsShopper’s surest prop play on PointsBet tonight.
Romeo Doubs Under 30.5 Yards Receiving (-120)
With Dillon and Jones both projecting well over their rushing lines, it’s clear how Stokastic sees the Packers game script. Aaron Rodgers only projects for 31 pass attempts and 251 yards, and since Doubs is at best Green Bay’s fifth option, there simply will not be enough volume for him to get to 31 yards — barring a big play. So while Doubs has gone over 30.5 in exactly half his games, the weather and his place in the Green Bay pecking order do not seem promising.
For the record, Allen Lazard and Christian Watson are the only Packers projecting for at least 31 yards tonight. Doubs is tied for fifth on the team in projected yards with 23, and his under has the highest expected ROI of any PointsBet prop.
D’Andre Swift Under 25.5 Yards Receiving (-120)
Unlike the other two props in this parlay, OddsShopper sees this line as pretty spot on. Six of Swift’s 13 games have seen him finish within 10 yards of this receiving line, and he has not seen fewer than three targets in any game in 2022-23. Of course, once again, the weather may be a factor — albeit less of one since Swift, as a running back, is arguably more likely to get screens and checkdowns. Stokastic has him for nearly three receptions on 4.1 targets and a 12.9% target share.
However, where Swift is falling short is his efficiency with those targets. He is averaging only 25.2 yards receiving per game (under the 25.5 line), so at this rate he has to exceed his average target number — which is 4.8. At 4.1 projected targets and only 5.34 projected yards per target, Stokastic has him for 21.9 yards tonight. That is relatively close to the line — but the under still has an expected win rate over 70% and an ROI over 30%.
Total Lions Packers Parlay Odds: +505
This parlay has a solid payout at +505, but all three of these legs have over a 70% expected win rate on OddsShopper. That said, If you are looking for some bonus buts to help assemble a strong parlay, DraftKings is offering a great deal. All you need to do is bet $5 on a moneyline to win $200! Then you can use that bonus and enhance or subtract this Lions-Packers parlay as needed.
