Merry Christmas to all who celebrate! What a week we have ahead. NFL football six out of the next eight days? Count me in. Tonight, we wrap up Week 16 with Saints-Packers at Lambeau Field. It’s not the juiciest matchup on paper, but hey, we’re betting it — and that’s all that matters. Here are the best bets for Saints-Packers Week 16 MNF, from prop bets to sides to touchdowns. Don’t forget to check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide, or explore even more free NFL expert picks and +EV NFL bets!
Week 16 MNF Best Bets for Saints-Packers
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Saints-Packers MNF Best Bets
The Packers are 14-point favorites at home, and for good reason. The Saints are utterly depleted, with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed all sidelined. Even Bub Means is on IR. They’re eliminated from playoff contention, and their season feels all but over.
Meanwhile, the Packers can clinch a postseason berth with a win tonight. They’re in prime position, playing at Lambeau in cold, potentially freezing rain conditions. The Saints are a dome team and have to contend with one of the league’s more opportunistic secondaries and a Packers run game that’s found its rhythm.
I grabbed Packers -13.5 earlier in the week, but even at -14, I’m sticking with them. This isn’t a game where I typically love backing a big favorite, but I just can’t find a path for the Saints to keep this close. Could the weirdness of football surprise us? Sure. But for me, it’s Packers -14 or pass.
MNF Best Bet for Saints-Packers: Packers -14 (-115 at bet365)
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Best MNF Player Prop Bets for Week 16
Jordan Love Under 29.5 Pass Attempts
Love hasn’t thrown 30 or more passes since Week 9. With the Packers expected to control this game from start to finish, there’s little reason for Love to air it out. Matt LaFleur has leaned on the run game, especially with the Saints ranking near the bottom of the league in run defense metrics.
Under 29.5 pass attempts is available at -130 on BetMGM, and I’m taking it. The Packers are heavy favorites, and their game script should allow them to pound the ball on the ground while Love takes a backseat in terms of volume.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Watson has only two touchdowns this season, but tonight feels like the perfect spot for him to strike. The Saints are bottom 5 in the league in explosive pass plays allowed and dead last in 40-yard passes given up.
Watson leads the Packers in deep targets despite missing time this season, and he’s still a factor in the red zone. At +200 on FanDuel, there’s solid value here for Watson to find pay dirt, whether it’s on a deep shot or in close.
Watson 40+ Yard Reception (+375)
This one’s available on bet365 at +375, and I love it as a sprinkle. Watson is the Packers’ bona fide deep threat, and the Saints secondary has been torched for big plays all season. With Watson leading the team in deep targets, this is a great spot for him to cash in on a long bomb. Why settle for a modest play when we can aim for something big?
