MNF NFL Player Props on No House Advantage: Fade the Bengals Passing Attack

NFL Prop Bets: Bills-Bengals No House Advantage NFL Prop Bets

Joe Burrow: Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes

The total for this game is around fifty points and just about everyone is expecting the Bills’ and Bengals’ passing attacks to be on full display. It’s no secret that both teams love to pass the ball, but the market may be over-inflating the Bengals’ potential passing attempts. Joe Burrow made 52 passing attempts last week, but that was against a Patriot’s team keen to take away the run. The last time that the Bengals reached 40 attempts was in Week 9 versus the Atlanta Falcons. Joe Mixon is rounding back into form after missing three weeks with a concussion. Further, the Bengals could need to put up a well-rounded offensive attack to keep a strong Bills defense on its toes.

Our custom No House Advantage projections have Burrow’s median passing touchdowns at 1.9. That amounts to a 68.2% win rate and the best prop on the board for this game. If you’re playing the No House Advantage “Pick Em” contest, this is one of the best spots to start.

Devin Singletary: Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

The theme on the unders continues with Devin Singletary‘s rushing yards line. Our No House Advantage projections have Singletary’s median outcome at just 39.7 rushing yards, with a win rate of 67.6%. The reason this one looks like a strong lean to the under is the increasing workload for James Cook. The rookie out of Georgia is eating into Singletary’s workload, garnering more snaps with each week. The Bills invested a 2nd rond pick on Cook in last year’s draft. They are now looking to capitalize on that investment. The rookie had double digit carries for the third time last week, and he was used frequently in passing situations. Our model predicts that this trend will hold, making Singletary’s rushing prop a good NFL prop bet on No House Advantage for the Bills-Bengals showdown.

Ja’Marr Chase: Under 6.5 Receptions & Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions

Ja’Marr Chase‘s receptions are set at 6.5 on NHA, while Tee Higgins are at 5.5. We expect both of these to go under the total at the high rate of 66.4% and 64.6% respectively. Those numbers shouldn’t come as a shock. Our model is projecting unders on Burrows touchdowns, implying that there is a strong lean away from the Bengals passing metrics in this contest. The best part is not just that these two props rank third and fourth on our board of No House Advantage NFL prop bets for the “Pick Em” contest.

What’s most important is that they strongly correlate with Joe Burrow‘s under. Remember, the “Pick Em” contests aren’t just about playing the best props, especially when your opponents are not. It’s also about building a board that correllates to boost your ceiling. That’s how we relate DFS “game theory” to traditional props. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins foretell a gamescript where the Bengals have the lead and utilize Joe Mixon, or just can’t get it throwing through the air. However this plays out on Monday night, you can do better to play these high win-rate No House Advantage NFL prop bets together.