NFL Buccaneers-Panthers Player Prop: Best Baker Mayfield Bet (January 7)

Buccaneers-Panthers Odds

Odds via bet365
Buccaneers: -225 | Panthers: +185
Buccaneers -4: -110 | Panthers +4: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois

Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield in the offseason, he agreed to several stat-based incentives. Those incentives require him to rank inside the top set number of quarterbacks in either the league or the NFC, and while he currently ranks there, it’s not guaranteed he’ll finish above that threshold.

Unfortunately for Mayfield, the Carolina Panthers have allowed the fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks (185.8), in no small part because of their inability to stop opposing ground games. They held Mayfield to only 202 passing yards just a few weeks back as running back Rachaad White galloped for 84 yards on the ground.

That said, Carolina’s defense is baked into Mayfield’s line. His passing yardage prop sits at only 223.5 on FanDuel, which is a number Mayfield has cleared in 10 of his 16 overall starts and five of his eight road starts. Mayfield is averaging 244.2 passing yards per game with a median showing of 246.

A silver lining for Mayfield is that the Buccaneers don’t run the ball that well. While White has flashed some upside, Tampa’s offensive line ranks 32nd in run-block win rate, and the team ranks 32nd in yards per rush attempt (3.4).

The Buccaneers have a ton on the line this weekend, as they’ll lock up the NFC South title and a playoff berth with a win over the Panthers. While that may prevent Mayfield from going all-out to cash his contract incentives, it may affect his decision-making late if the Buccaneers get out to an early lead.