Week 18 in the NFL has almost arrived, and that means there are several player contract incentives to know when looking at the player prop markets. I won’t dive into them all — you can check out our YouTube Short for more information. Let’s dive right into the top NFL contract incentives you’ll want at your fingertips when betting on the NFL player prop markets. If you’re looking for other player props, check out our staff player prop picks (when they go live this weekend!) or our NFL betting model’s top picks.
NFL Contract Incentives to Know for Week 18 Player Props
Devin Singletary Contract Incentives & Player Props
The Houston Texans added running back Devin Singletary from the Buffalo Bills in the offseason, and one stipulation of his contract is that he’ll receive a $125,000 bonus for eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards. Singletary has only 835 rushing yards as we head into Week 18, so he’ll need to do a lot to cash this over, but we’ve seen him run for 100-plus yards three times this year already.
Singletary and the Houston Texans need to win to stay in the playoff hunt. However, they’ll have to play the Indianapolis Colts, who are in a similar spot. The Jacksonville Jaguars will win the AFC South with a win over the long-since-eliminated Tennessee Titans, so the Colts and Texans are likely scrapping for the No. 7 seed.
While Singletary only recorded 14 rushing yards against the Colts a few weeks back, look for him to run with a bit more anger this week. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs this year (106.5) and just gave up 167 total rushing yards to the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield last week.
Devin Singletary Player Prop: Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -110 at bet365
Odell Beckham Jr. Contract Incentives & Player Props
The Baltimore Ravens signed veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a big deal to help them bring back quarterback Lamar Jackson, and wow, has their plan worked to perfection. The Ravens have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a week left on the schedule. While that means rest for some players, including Jackson, it may not mean rest for Beckham.
Beckham needs to get 750 receiving yards to earn a $750,000 bonus. He would also cash a $500,000 incentive with five receiving touchdowns. Beckham currently has 565 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, so it’s no sure thing that he’ll get there, but expect backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to look his way a few extra times.
You’ll find Beckham trading at odds of +380 to score a single touchdown at FanDuel. He clocks in at +2300 to score twice. If you expect the Ravens to look his way early before resting their starters, Beckham is at +750 to score a first-half touchdown.
Odell Beckham Jr. Player Prop: 1H TD +750 at FanDuel
Baker Mayfield Contract Incentives & Player Props
Few players have more on the line in Week 18 than Baker Mayfield. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers are only in the playoffs with a win or a tie, meaning they’ll have to beat the Carolina Panthers this week. Mayfield’s contract also dictates that he’ll get a $300,000 bonus for ranking inside the NFL’s top 10 or the NFC’s top five in a handful of passing categories, including passer rating, passing yards (the cutoffs drop to 12th and seventh for this one) and yards per pass (same as passing yards).
Mayfield currently ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards as well as fifth in the NFC with 3,907. He’ll get a chance to make up some ground on Brock Purdy, who ranks second and first, respectively, because the San Francisco 49ers will rest him. Mayfield only has about a 100-yard margin for error to stay in the NFL’s top 12 or the NFC’s top seven, with C.J. Stroud (3,844), Jordan Love (3,843), Jalen Hurts (3,803), Sam Howell (3,793) and Trevor Lawrence all within striking distance (3,736).
Unfortunately for Mayfield, he’ll have to play a Carolina Panthers team that allows the fewest yards per game to quarterbacks (185.8), in no small part because of its struggles on the ground. The Panthers allow 109.4 rushing yards per game to running backs. Mayfield is questionable for Sunday’s game due to a rib injury, but he has plenty of incentive to play. If the books open his 200-plus passing yardage prop at odds anywhere close to -150 (60%), pounce on it.
Baker Mayfield Player Prop: 200+ Passing Yards -150 or Better
DeAndre Hopkins Contract Incentives & Player Props
The Tennesee Titans may not have anything left to play for, but star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins certainly does. Several contract incentives are in play for him: he’ll get $250,000 for reaching the following milestones: 75 receptions, 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns. Hopkins currently has 68 receptions, 1,011 receiving yards (1,020 total yards) and six touchdowns. It’s unclear whether the contract specifies receiving or all-purpose yardage, so he may need either 39 receiving yards or 30 all-purpose yards to get there.
The sportsbooks haven’t opened the markets for Hopkins’ yards or receptions, but betting the over 6.5 on his catches seems like it should be a sharp bet, depending on how much the books end up charging. As far as touchdowns go, Hopkins clocks in at odds of +190 at DraftKings to score just once. He’ll line up against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday — a team that, regardless of Saturday’s outcomes, will have an incentive to win — so don’t expect them to just give up and let Hopkins find the end zone.
