NFL Cowboys-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Pick (Dec. 24)

Cowboys-Dolphins Odds

Odds via bet365
Cowboys: +110 | Dolphins: -130
Cowboys +1.5: -105 | Dolphins -1.5: -115
Over 49.5: -115 | Under 49.5: -105
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois

Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown

The NFL’s leader in rushing touchdowns, Raheem Mostert, sits at odds of -110 on the anytime touchdown scorer markets this weekend. Sure, the matchup with the Dallas Cowboys looks like a tough one, but Miami is a 1.5-point home favorite, and the total is a lofty 49.5 on bet365. I just don’t understand why Mostert’s odds aren’t much shorter.

Mostert’s 18 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns aren’t some statistical fluke. Mostert leads the Dolphins (and the NFL) in carries both inside the 10-yard line (30) and inside the five-yard line (17). He also boasts five targets inside the red zone. With that kind of volume, 20 touchdowns should be the expectation.

Of course, not all of Mostert’s touchdown runs have come in goal-to-go situations. Despite his age, Mostert is still an electric runner. He reached the ninth-fastest speed recorded by a ball carrier this year in a Week 2 43-yard rushing touchdown against the New England Patriots at 21.6 mph. While that’s slower than two of his teammates, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane, it’s more than enough for Mostert to break off a chunk play.

Those skeptical of the Miami offense’s ability to get into the red zone versus Dallas can take some solace in Mostert’s ability to break off big plays. Still, Miami ranks a solid 10th in red-zone scoring attempts per game (3.6). Dallas may rank an impressive fourth in red-zone scoring attempts allowed (2.7), but that number ticks up to 3.1 when they play on the road.