The NFL turns the page to Week 6 with a relatively solid card. We’ve got some decent primetime games, including the debut of the New York Jets’ new coaching staff, as well as debut of rookie quarterbacks Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler. If you need more NFL expert picks and analysis, sign up for expert picks via Tails by OddsShopper or learn how to find them on your own by reading our NFL betting strategy guide. Without further ado, let’s dive into our NFL expert picks and betting model predictions for Week 6.
NFL Expert Picks & Betting Model Predictions for Week 6 (2024)
NFL Week 6 Expert Picks & Betting Model Predictions (2024)
Week 6 Betting Model Predictions & Expert Analysis
Predictions are generated by using a power rating that includes Elo, EPA, DVOA and a quarterback adjustment.
San Francisco (-1) @ Seattle — The model is a bit lower than the market on the 49ers, but with the deluge of injuries to the Seattle defense on a short week, that isn’t very surprising. Still, I don’t mind playing Seattle (+3.5).
Jacksonville @ Chicago (-6) — We’re in London, not Chicago, for this one, so the model has Chicago as just under a 6-point neutral-site favorite, easily clearing the -1.5. The love is in large part due to Chicago’s solid net EPA.
Washington @ Baltimore (-3.5) — The model loves the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, but it also loves the Commanders and Jayden Daniels. With how Baltimore’s defense has struggled, it can’t get to the market number of -6.5.
Houston (-9.5) @ New England — We completely clear the market numbers of Houston (-6.5 to -7) here. New England’s turnovers and offensive line have sunk their EPA. Who knows if Drake Maye can make up for it. The model would have New England at +8 if Jacoby Brissett were under center.
Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Tennessee — The model doesn’t know the Indianapolis Colts have just lost a ton of skill-position players. The Colts drop from -1.5 to -1 if Anthony Richardson takes over, too. I’m not running to buy Colts +2.5.
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-7.5) — Although the Eagles (-9.5) are nearly two-touchdown favorites, they’re net-negative in EPA, minimizing the possible advantage they’ll have over a truly terrible Browns team. The model would be much closer to Eagles (-7) if the Browns swapped Deshaun Watson for Jameis Winston.
Arizona @ Green Bay (-6.5) — The market likes the Packers (-4.5 to -5), just not to the extent that the model does. Green Bay leads Arizona in every metric it considers. That said, it’s tightest between Jordan Love and Kyler Murray.
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-7) — This one is a bit tricky. New Orleans (+3.5) is a home dog with the offensive line injuries and new quarterback, but the model loves New Orleans’ impressive DVOA through five weeks. It doesn’t love Derek Carr, so his absence doesn’t move the needle for it. I will be on the Saints and am hoping Spencer Rattler lives up to the hype.
LA Chargers (-0.5) @ Broncos — The model has this at a pick’em but the market likes Los Angeles (-2.5 to -3). With a rock-bottom total of 35.5 and Greg Roman calling half the offensive plays, don’t expect offensive fireworks. Denver keeps it with in a field goal more often than not.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Las Vegas — The change to Aidan O’Connell costs Las Vegas (+3) a half-point from the model. With the wheels falling off for head coach Antonio Pierce, I’m riding with the Steelers. A change to Russell Wilson from Justin Fields wouldn’t move the needle here.
Detroit (-4.5) at Dallas — Dallas (+3) could be a big public dog this week. Unfortunately, their odds of keeping it within a field goal are lower than you’d think — even with Dak Prescott moving the needle much more than Jared Goff.
Atlanta (-7) at Carolina — I don’t know of anyone who is excited about betting on Carolina (+7.5), and I’m not eager to buy that half-point with what I think is an efficient spread. Bijan Robinson will roll. I posted the model to The Profit Isaiah on Wednesday, back when you could still get Atlanta (-6). That’s long gone now.
Cincinnati (-2.5) at NY Giants — Joe Burrow is one of the model’s favorite quarterbacks, but not even he can compensate for the brutal defense enough for Cincinnati (-3.5) to look like a good bet this week. I’m not running to bet on Daniel Jones, but I could be convinced if we get to +4.5.
Buffalo (-4) at NY Jets — The public will probably be excited about New York (+2.5 to +3) with Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays, especially after Buffalo’s brutal Week 5, but if the Bills get somewhat healthier, they could wind up being a decent bet for Monday Night Football.
NFL Expert Pick for Week 6: Buccaneers-Saints
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Buccaneers-Saints NFL Expert Pick
When I first ran the model, I wasn’t sure if I would end up on the New Orleans Saints due to the quarterback change. I have since come around. Although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had some extra days to prep and rest, the quarterback change minimizes some of that advantage. The Saints are also at home.
Ultimately, while the Baker Mayfield redemption story is compelling, he doesn’t move the needle that much in terms of expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE). His impressive passing output is more due to Tampa Bay’s scheme than efficient play.
Tampa Bay has an edge in Elo but trails in both net EPA (largely due to a non-existent run defense) and DVOA (also largely due to defensive struggles). Meanwhile, New Orleans is a top 8 pass defense in EPA and a top 7 overall offense in both EPA and DVOA.
The model also doesn’t even love Derek Carr, so his absence is not expected to prevent Klint Kubiak from running his efficient offensive scheme. Time will tell if Spencer Rattler can execute, but we’re getting more than enough points of value with New Orleans at +3.5 to warrant a wager.
NFL Expert Pick for Buccaneers-Saints: New Orleans +3.5 -115 at Caesars
