As the 2024 NFL season approaches, you’re rapidly running out of time to get your futures bets down. If you haven’t played these types of markets before, check out our guide to futures betting strategy. In short, you need to make sure that your ROI is better than the compounding returns you would’ve gotten from other investments, be they sports bets or a high-yield savings account. Without further ado, let’s dive into my expert NFL picks for all 2024 NFL division winners.
NFL Expert Picks & Predictions: Best 2024 Division Winner Bets
NFL Expert Picks & Predictions: Best 2024 Division Winner Bets
2024 AFC East Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
AFC East Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | +165 | +180 | +195 | +155 |
| NYJ | +170 | +160 | +165 | +170 |
| MIA | +210 | +220 | +205 | +240 |
| NE | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 | +2400 |
NFL Expert Pick: AFC East Winner
The AFC East is one of the trickiest divisions in football this year. Last year’s winners, the Buffalo Bills, got worse, losing a number of key reserves, two wide receivers and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
To replace those assets, Buffalo will lean on its draft class, especially rookie wideout Keon Coleman. Free agency was sparse. The only player the Bills picked up to a deal worth more than $10 million was Curtis Samuel.
So, if the Bills are worse, why not trust the upstart Miami Dolphins or the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets? Both are fair questions, but they’re trickier than at first glance. Let’s dive into each roster.
Miami had a similarly bad offseason, for instance. The Dolphins lost two starting offensive linemen, Connor Williams and Robert Hunt, along with star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. Pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb both suffered season-ending injuries late in the year and still haven’t fully returned.
The Dolphins spent a bit more than the Bills, though. They added pass rusher Shaq Barrett — only for him to retire. Aaron Brewer will replace Williams at center but is a downgrade of 15 points in PFF grade. Their biggest signing was middle linebacker Jordyn Brooks, but he is a downgrade of 9.3 from last year’s starter, Jerome Baker.
On the other side, the Jets seem to finally have things put together — at least on paper. Hardly anyone left in the offseason. Offensive tackle, which had been a massive problem for the organization, appears to be squared away with veterans Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses as the bookends. Veteran wideout Mike Williams joins an exciting, young receiving corps, too.
The problem for the Jets isn’t personnel. It’s health and coaching. We still haven’t seen Rodgers play a snap after tearing his Achilles tendon, and New York’s big free agency (well, except Moses) are generally perceived to be injury prone. Head coach Robert Saleh made questionable quarterback decisions all year, and we all remember offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett from his time in Denver.
I hate to say it, but I’m going with the Jets to take the AFC East. As of publication, the Jets were the favorite to win the AFC East at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and were trading at odds of +170 to do so. We can bet them at the same number on
NFL Expert Pick for AFC East Winner: New York Jets +170 at BetMGM for 0.67U
2024 AFC North Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
AFC North Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | +135 | +145 | +145 | +145 |
| CIN | +165 | +160 | +145 | +165 |
| CLE | +500 | +500 | +550 | +450 |
| PIT | +700 | +650 | +800 | +750 |
NFL Expert Pick: AFC North Winner
The AFC North looks like a two-horse race this season, with the Baltimore Ravens trading as the slight favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals at most books. That isn’t true everywhere, however — Cincinnati is favored on DraftKings.
The biggest question in the North is what the Ravens will look like this year. Gone are a number of free agents, including linebacker Patrick Queen, pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney and safety Geno Stone. The Ravens had little cap space to use to replace them. Eddie Jackson fills a gap at safety for $1.5 million.
The Ravens also lost defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and assistant head coach Anthony Weaver. The only big-name get the Ravens landed in the offseason was 30-year-old running back Derrick Henry. They’ll hope that the threat he can provide alongside Lamar Jackson will open up the offense, especially in the red zone, but will it be enough?
The problem for Baltimore is that the Cincinnati Bengals finished fourth in the AFC North last year. While the Ravens must play Buffalo and Houston, Cincinnati gets off easy with New England and Tennessee. They’ll both have to play the entire AFC West, minimizing the advantage the Bengals would’ve gotten from avoiding Kansas City.
As far as offseasons go, Cincinnati’s was relatively boring. They lost tackle Jonah Williams, but they’ll replace him with Trent Brown, giving them an upgrade of 21.7 by PFF grade. They swapped defensive tackle D.J. Reader for Sheldon Rankins, a downgrade of 18 that could leave them very vulnerable to the run. Geno Stone will look to shore up an already-shaky secondary that lost cornerback Chidobe Awuzie.
Because Cincinnati’s defense already ranked sixth worst by expected points added (EPA) per play, their defensive losses are a major concern. While I like their soft schedule and offense (replacing Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon with Andrei Iosivas and Zack Moss should be fine), an inability to get stops could keep from taking the AFC North title.
If you’re betting on the AFC North winner, you’re best served in taking the Ravens at +145 at FanDuel.
NFL Expert Pick for AFC North Winner: Baltimore Ravens +145 at FanDuel for 0.67U
2024 AFC South Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
AFC South Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | -115 | -110 | +105 | +105 |
| JAX | +300 | +300 | +250 | +270 |
| IND | +350 | +320 | +340 | +310 |
| TEN | +1000 | +1100 | +1000 | +950 |
NFL Expert Pick: AFC South Winner
Last year’s worst-to-first winner, the Houston Texans, seem to have turned things around quickly. I corrected call this a two-horse race between the Texans (then trading at +1000) and the Jaguars (-155) in last year’s AFC South preview. It’s hard to see a different picture this year.
The odds would have you believe that it’s Houston’s division to lose. Houston did have a solid offseason, losing several defensive pieces but adding others of mostly equivalent value, but winning the division last year comes with a tougher schedule.
Houston’s biggest offseason acquisition was wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who adds a veteran presence to a very young offense. He is expected to play alongside Nico Collins in two-wide sets while moving into the slot when Tank Dell takes the field for three-receiver sets. If C.J. Stroud can prove that his 12th-best ranking in EPA+CPOE composite score wasn’t a fluke — and Houston’s defense improves on its 14th-place ranking in EPA allowed per play — the Texans should cook.
However, Jacksonville is now getting completely overlooked. The organization that came out of nowhere to win this division two years ago now clocks in at odds of +300 at Caesars. Why?
While Stroud looked great, Lawrence was good, too. He finished a close 16th in EPA+CPOE. Houston’s defense, which came along down the stretch, still finished behind 13th-ranked Jacksonville in EPA allowed per play.
Jacksonville’s offseason wasn’t even bad. The Jaguars may have lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley and cornerback Darious Williams, but they added defensive end Arik Armstead, safety Darnell Savage, a few veteran defensive backs and two young wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis.
I would be remiss not to mention the Indianapolis Colts, who will be hoping for a full season of last year’s first-round pick, Anthony Richardson. I’m more willing to overlook the Colts than the books are, especially with pass rusher Samson Ebukam already out for the season.
That said, Indianapolis does lead the division in win-total-based strength of schedule. Jacksonville is a close second. Houston and Tennessee are a distant third and fourth.
The Texans are trading at -114 on Pinnacle, which is edging most public books. But the Jaguars are trading at +281, also edging several public books. The main differences at Pinnacle are the longer odds for the Colts and Titans. Houston probably wins this division again, but Jacksonville has a far better shot than the oddsmakers would have you think.
NFL Expert Pick for AFC South Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars +300 at Caesars for 0.5U
2024 AFC West Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
AFC West Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | -300 | -270 | -260 | -270 |
| LAC | +360 | +380 | +350 | +390 |
| LV | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| DEN | +2500 | +1800 | +2200 | +2000 |
NFL Expert Pick: AFC West Winner
Every year, I usually write about how the Kansas City Chiefs will almost certainly win the AFC West. Every year, I also have to write about some longshot team to pull off an unbelievable upset to get the job done against Kansas City because their odds are too short.
That isn’t the case this year. Although Kansas City will cost you a pretty penny at -260 to win the AFC West, they’re -324 to do so at Pinnacle. That’s a difference of almost 4%. The Chiefs actually do have value on the AFC West market this season.
Kansas City’s offseason was pretty uneventful. They added wide receiver Marquise Brown, who is now injured, along with wide receiver Xavier Worthy, to replace Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is now in Buffalo, while hopefully giving them upgrades over Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. Not much else is different.
The only real loss for Kansas City was having to trade cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans. Sneed recorded a nice 71.1 PFF grade and was a key part of this unit that ranked sixth in EPA allowed per play (and third in EPA allowed per dropback).
To replace Sneed, the Chiefs are expected to turn to 2022 fourth-round pick Joshua Williams, who posted a 73 PFF grade. It shouldn’t be a huge change, but depth is now somewhat of a concern.
Kansas City’s rivals for divisional dominance are the Jim Harbaugh-coached Los Angeles Chargers and the upstart Las Vegas Raiders. It’s hard to get excited about trusting a Greg Roman offense like the one we’ll see in L.A., especially since the Chargers have so few weapons on offense.
Likewise, while the Raiders have some marquee assets in Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby and now Christian Wilkins, is it possible for head coach Antonio Pierce to get enough out of Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew II to supplant the Chiefs? Probably not.
For the Chiefs to lose this division, their offense will have to continue on a downward trend. With the entire offensive line returning, upgrades to the receiving corps and another year of development for Isiah Pacheco, I can’t see that happening. An injury to Patrick Mahomes II would obviously be devastating here, but I can’t see anyone else winning the division if he starts at least 15 games.
It feels gross, but wagering enough to secure a half-unit profit is a solid play.
NFL Expert Pick for AFC West Winner: Kansas City Chiefs -260 at DraftKings for 1.3U
2024 NFC East Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
NFC East Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | -130 | -125 | -125 | -140 |
| DAL | +160 | +180 | +170 | +175 |
| WAS | +900 | +1000 | +900 | +1100 |
| NYG | +2000 | +1200 | +2000 | +1600 |
NFL Expert Pick: NFC East Winner
The NFC East is projected a two-horse race between the favored Philadelphia Eagles and the underdog Dallas Cowboys. Using the most favorable lines for both teams, you’d get a cumulative implied probability of 98% that one of them wins.
The Eagles, who won this division in 2022, will look to keep an improbable streak alive: no team has won the NFC East in back-to-back years since the Eagles did so in 2003 and 2004. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will look to buck that trend and capture that honor from Philadelphia.
The Eagles are rightfully favored over the Cowboys in this division. Philadelphia’s offseason saw them bring back safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who had left for Detroit last season. They also landed running back Saquon Barkley and pass rusher Bryce Huff. All three players recorded PFF grades in the 70s.
Philadelphia’s offensive personnel will look to bounce back after a down year under offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. In 2022, Philadelphia ranked third in both EPA per play (0.1) and success rate (47.9%). In 2023, they regressed to seventh (0.6) and sixth (46.3%). From Week 12 to their playoff exit, they ranked 16th (0) and 10th (43.9%).
Replacing Johnson is ex-Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore’s Cowboys were consistently one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses, but the team’s postseason struggles cost him his job. With head coach Mike McCarthy still at the helm in Dallas, those struggles are likely to continue — and they may rear their head in the regular season, too.
Last year, Dallas ranked second in EPA per play (0.108) and fifth in success rate (47.1%). Their offense has since lost center Tyler Biadasz, left tackle Tyron Smith, wide receiver Michael Gallup and running back Tony Pollard. Dallas will turn to some questionable players to fill those gaps, including a now-29 Ezekiel Elliott.
The other issue for Dallas is the defense. Although this unit ranked fourth in EPA allowed per game (-0.08), it also ranked a brutal 26th in success rate allowed (44.7%), and the offseason was unkind to it. Several rotational pass rushers are gone. Stud linebacker Leighton Vander Esch has retired. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is gone after a brutal playoff exit, so it’s up to Mike Zimmer to make this unit work with far fewer resources.
Philadelphia’s defense struggled mightily in 2023 due to several offseason losses, and I suspect we’ll see the same from Dallas’ defense in 2024. Barring a Rookie of the Year campaign from Washington’s Jayden Daniels, Philadelphia should be the team that keeps the streak of no repeat NFC East winners alive.
I love the Eagles on this market. Wager enough to profit two units.
NFL Expert Pick for NFC East Winner: Philadelphia Eagles -125 at DraftKings for 2.5U
2024 NFC North Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
NFC North Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | +130 | +130 | +135 | +130 |
| GB | +195 | +220 | +230 | +200 |
| CHI | +340 | +330 | +280 | +340 |
| MIN | +1000 | +800 | +1100 | +850 |
NFL Expert Pick: NFC North Winner
The NFC North is very interesting as we head into 2024. The Detroit Lions, who were on the up-and-up over the last few years under head coach Dan Campbell, could be about to regress after a not-so-great offseason.
Waiting in the wings are the Chicago Bears, who landed first-overall pick Caleb Williams, and the Green Bay Packers, who came on hot at the end of last season under quarterback Jordan Love. It’s best to expect the unexpected in the NFC North.
First, let’s unpack why I’m skeptical of the Lions. Detroit’s offense will look much the same — down to the offensive coordinator, even, which is huge. Detroit arguably upgraded at both guard positions, too, with the only notable offensive departure being that of wide receivers Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones Jr.
The problem for Detroit won’t be offense — it’ll be the defense, specifically the pass defense. Last year, Detroit ranked 25th in both EPA allowed per dropback (0.08) and dropback success rate allowed (47.4%). This offseason, they lost safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to Philadelphia and swapped some cornerbacks around, giving them rookie Terrion Arnold and veteran Carlton Davis III (58.2 PFF grade) at the starting spots.
The lack of talent at cornerback wouldn’t be a huge deal if the Lions had a pair of good safeties to support them, but they don’t. Brian Branch (78.1) gives them one, but Kerby Joseph (57.7) does not, and Tracy Walker III (62.8) is now in San Francisco. The Lions should be good against the run with nose tackle D.J. Reader in town, but this reads as a classic pass-funnel defense to me.
The Lions now play in a division with two exciting young quarterbacks (Love and Williams) as well as a journey veteran who looked competent last season (Sam Darnold). Last year, they had two games against Nick Mullens and two games against Justin Fields. Things will be more difficult for their secondary in 2024.
So, who am I trusting to win the NFC North this year? I’m tying my cart to the Green Bay Packers bandwagon. For the season, Green Bay’s offense ranked fifth in EPA per play (0.08) and eighth in success rate (45.1%). But when we look at Week 12 through the postseason, Gree Bay ranks first (0.2) and third (48.9%). They led the NFL in dropback EPA by a massive margin through that sample.
To me, the only question with the Packers is whether their defense can improve upon its 26th-place ranking in EPA allowed per play (0.05), which, for the record, still outpaced 28th-ranked Detroit (0.06). New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will bring some fresh ideas to this unit, and he’ll have big-money safety Xavier McKinney (87.5) to help him. At +230 odds, I’ve got faith in Hafley and the Packers.
Wager enough on this one to profit three units.
NFL Expert Pick for NFC North Winner: Green Bay Packers +230 at DraftKings for 1.3U
2024 NFC South Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
NFC South Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | -140 | -140 | -130 | -145 |
| TB | +290 | +285 | +320 | +290 |
| NO | +475 | +485 | +400 | +550 |
| CAR | +1300 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 |
NFL Expert Pick: NFC South Winner
Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came out of seemingly nowhere to win the NFC South at odds of around +800. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was able to run the offense capably, and the lack of serious competition gave him and the Bucs an easy path.
This year, Tampa Bay’s offense will have to start over, as offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, and with the Atlanta Falcons adding Kirk Cousins, the Buccaneers aren’t even favored to repeat.
The Falcons are an intriguing team for a number of reasons, but the fact they’ll get an actual head coach and offensive coordinator to work with their exceptional cast of skill-position players has many people buying into them. Although we haven’t seen much real-life production from them, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are all incredible athletes. Cousins and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson have a glut of talent on their hands.
Atlanta’s new head coach, Raheem Morris, will pilot a defense that features some studs of its own, namely cornerback A.J. Terrell (74.6 PFF grade), defensive lineman David Onyemata (83.3) and safety Jessie Bates III (90.6). The team added veteran safety Justin Simmons (67.9) and pass rusher Matthew Judon (70.2), too.
Last year, Atlanta’s defensive problem was a complete inability to pressure the quarterback; the Falcons ranked 32nd in pass-rush win rate (31%). The Falcons will hope that the additions of Judon and several rookies — Atlanta used five draft picks on defensive linemen and linebackers this year — will resolve their personnel issues. Morris, who comes over from the Rams, coaches L.A. to a 14th-place ranking in pass-rush win rate last season (42%).
While the Buccaneers could be plucky, the price of about +400 for them feels right. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has them at +300, so you could find some market-based value there, if that’s your sports betting strategy of choice. I find it hard to pass up the Falcons at market price right now, but I will admit that Carolina intrigues me at +1500 on BetMGM, especially since we just saw Canales lead a similar turnaround in the NFC South last year.
My advice? Split a unit and a half between the Falcons and Panthers.
NFL Expert Pick for NFC South Winner: Falcons -130 at DraftKings for 1.35U & Panthers +1300 at BetMGM for 0.15U
2024 NFC West Preview | NFL Division Winner Expert Picks & Predictions
NFC West Division Winner Odds
| Team | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | -210 | -200 | -195 | -190 |
| LAR | +340 | +340 | +350 | +330 |
| SEA | +700 | +700 | +650 | +700 |
| ARI | +1400 | +1400 | +1300 | +1300 |
NFL Expert Pick: NFC West Winner
The NFC West is, by all accounts, relatively safe to call for the San Francisco 49ers. They’re trading at about -200 (66.7%), and if that seems low to you, I’d say that is reasonable for the number of questions surrounding them at the moment.
While another strong year for quarterback Brock Purdy should be expected, the potential loss of Brandon Aiyuk and lack of depth behind him (rookie Ricky Pearsall is hurt, and behind him are… Jauan Jennings, Chris Conley, Trent Taylor and Ronnie Bell).
So, if the 49ers stumble, who picks up the slack? There’s an argument for just about every other team in this division. The Los Angeles Rams are perennial contenders under head coach Sean McVay, but they just lost Aaron Donald, and his impact will be impossible to replace.
The Seattle Seahawks have some questions at quarterback, but new head coach Mike Macdonald should bring an elite defensive scheme from Baltimore. Finally, for all their shortcomings, the Arizona Cardinals have a franchise quarterback in Kyler Murray, a franchise wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. and a franchise tight end in Trey McBride.
Ultimately, while I believe the 49ers win this division more often than they lose it, the betting odds just aren’t good enough to warrant wagering on them to do so. Instead, it’s Seattle that stands out as the best betting value on the market, especially at the ### on ###.
For as much as I love Macdonald, whose Baltimore defense ranked second in both EPA allowed per play (-0.13) and EPA allowed per dropback (-0.14), and for as excited as I am about him getting to work with defensive backs Devon Witherspoon (84.1 PFF grade), Tariq Woolen (67.1) and Julian Love (72.8), it’s offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb that excites me the most.
Grubb comes to the NFL from the University of Washington, where he led the nation’s 12th-ranked offense in yards per pass attempt (9) and the second-ranked offense in passing yards per game (343.7). He now gets to work with one of the NFL’s best wide receiver rooms: Tyler Lockett (78.1), DK Metcalf (80) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63.3) are all electric.
The market is just too low on Seattle this year. They probably don’t win the NFC West, but they win it more often than their +700 odds would lead you to believe.
NFL Expert Pick for NFC West Winner: Seattle Seahawks +700 at BetMGM
