This week’s NFL player prop parlay is playing things riskier, for two reasons. One, a lot of playoff scenarios are undecided and therefore a lot of game script predictions and roster decisions are going to be crapshoots anyway. And two, DraftKings is offering its best deal ever, which provides bettors some bonus bets with which to make a huge splash on an NFL parlay. All you need to do is bet $5 on a moneyline and you will win $200 if your team wins!
For Week 18, OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder used DraftKings to build a Prop Party parlay. If you need some advice on how to use the Parlay Builder, check out this video from Eytan Shander, as he demonstrates how to use the Prop Party as well as all of the other settings on the Parlay Builder.
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Best NFL Parlay Player Props for Week 18
Austin Hooper Under 24.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Austin Hooper unders have been popular on OddsShopper ever since Ryan Tannehill went down. And for the most part, they have paid off. Hooper has been under this line each of the last two weeks — 20 yards catching passes from Malik Willis in Week 16, 6 yards last week from Joshua Dobbs. One could look at last week’s yardage total as not a true representation of Hooper’s game, as Dobbs did target him six times. However, that was on 39 pass attempts from Dobbs — and that 15.4% target share is only slightly higher than Hooper’s 13.1% target share for the whole season.
Plus, last week’s game was largely irrelevant for Tennessee. This week is the game that matters, as the winner of Jaguars-Titans wins the AFC South. That means that Tennessee will likely turn to its winning formula, which is running Derrick Henry a lot more. Dobbs threw so many times in Week 17 because A) The Titans wanted to see what they had with Dobbs, and B) Because they were sitting Henry and thus had a less effective running game. This week’s script leans more to a Henry-centric gameplan, and Stokastic is thus projecting Hooper for only 17.7 yards receiving on Saturday.
Deshaun Watson Under 209.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Deshaun Watson played maybe his best game of the season last week — three touchdowns on just 18 passes — and he still only threw for 169 yards. He has only gotten to 200 yards once in five games this year, which was a somewhat inefficient 276 in Week 14 against the Bengals. This week he faces the Steelers, who are still in the playoff hunt at 8-8 and playing at the same time as the two teams they are chasing, the Dolphins and Patriots. As such, there is no reason for Pittsburgh to let off the gas pedal at all here.
The Steelers have been nowhere near the pass defense of recent years, but Watson has struggled mightily against all manner of defense. This bet has OddsShopper’s highest win rate of any Sunday game, as Watson projects for only 188.7 yards passing.
Tyler Higbee Over 29.5 Yards Receiving (-120)
The Rams are not playing for the postseason, but they do still have something to play for since they can keep the division rival Seahawks out of the playoffs. And with Seattle favored by 6, Los Angeles is also probably going to have to throw late in the game.
Now, the Rams have not been dropping Baker Mayfield back a ton — fewer than 30 times in three of four games — but almost 70% of his pass attempts have been less than 10 yards downfield. Meanwhile, Tyler Higbee has thrived in that range as well, with 90 of his 98 targets being less than 10 yards.
It has not totally translated to Higbee becoming Mayfield’s favorite receiver; they have only connected for 30 yards or more once in four games. But given the circumstances and the Rams having nothing to lose, Stokastic is projecting Higbee to go way over this line, with 42.3 yards.
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Robert Tonyan Under 24.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
It’s been a pretty steep drop-off for Robert Tonyan. Just two years ago, he averaged over 10 yards per target. This year he is down around 7, and the touchdowns are not coming to offset that inefficiency.
Tonyan’s receiving line is a fair one given his performances this season — he has gone for 25 yards or more in 7 of 16 games. However, he has only done it once in the last seven, as Aaron Rodgers has found a deeper connection with Christian Watson and Allen Lazard. Plus, though Green Bay’s game against the Lions has the highest total on Sunday (49.5), enough could be decided prior to kickoff that the Packers turn away from the passing game. And given Tonyan’s production of late, if there is any dip in Green Bay’s passing volume, it will be tough for him to get to this number.
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