With the NFL season just a few weeks away, our team of sports betting experts has dug through the win total markets to identify a few sharp NFL picks. Although our experts may not always agree — who does, after all? — they’ll break down their top NFL win total picks and predictions for 2024 season to help you understand their process. If you’re hoping to make sharp bets on your own, check out our guide to NFL betting strategy!
NFL Picks & Predictions: Best Win Total Bets for 2024
NFL Picks & Predictions: Best Win Total Bets for 2024
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@shanderbets – New England Patriots Over 4.5 Total Wins/Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Total Wins: I jumped on this earlier in the offseason and still believe in it.
Let’s get the easier one out of the way: the Cardinals. Arizona was plagued by injury last year, especially on defense. They finally have a make-or-break year for Kyler Murray, and their bozo head coach Jonathan Gannon can actually scheme with healthy players — he’s just a tough listen.
Wide receivers don’t move the playoffs needle, but the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. should add an immediate playmaker to the receiver group.
The defense — when healthy — should keep them in games. Speaking of which, they have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and face Carolina, Washington, and Seattle twice.
Now, let’s talk about the Patriots. If you believe like I do that Jacoby Brissett will take the majority of snaps this year, then you know there is stability at the quarterback position, something they have lacked since Brady bolted for Tampa.
The reality is people are downplaying this team even more right now because their best player on defense is exercising his “tantrum” clause, but make no mistake, Matthew Judon will be on this team.
So long as Jerod Mayo doesn’t commit fan malpractice and throw away the season by starting Drake Maye, the Pats should cook against weak opponents.
They’re coming come off a four-win year in which they had worse play at quarterback and more dysfunction in the coaching ranks. Five wins is far from a reach here.
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NFL Expert Pick: New England Patriots Over 4.5 Total Wins/Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Total Wins +170 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Carolina Panthers O/U 5.5 Wins: My favorite NFL pick for the win total markets is no longer on the board. I recommended that bettors slam the Miami Dolphins under 10.5 for -145 back in March, and, lo and behold, their total is now trading at 9.5.
Now, I recommend backing the Carolina Panthers to win at least six games.
For one, this is a profoundly low benchmark. Only five teams failed to win at least six games last year. Only six did so in 2022, and only five did so in 2021. You have to be incredibly bad to not win at least six games.
This begs the question of whether or not the Panthers are incredibly bad. I don’t think they are, especially not with new head coach Dave Canales at the helm.
Last year, quarterback Bryce Young (56 PFF grade) struggled with a poor cast of receivers while throwing behind a dismal offensive line. The Panthers have added Diontae Johnson (77.7) and rookie Xavier Legette to resolve the first problem. They have added guards Damien Lewis (59.6) and Robert Hunt (77.1) to resolve the second. These are solid enough stopgaps for them to be more competitive.
But it’s the defensive side of the ball that gets me the most excited about this team. Joining some solid pieces like Derrick Brown (90.1) and Jaycee Horn (84.1) are Jadeveon Clowney (85.7), A’Shawn Robinson (58.6), Josey Jewell (67.2), Jordan Fuller (66.7) and Dane Jackson (64.5) — none move the much individually, but collectively, I’m excited.
These moves are close to a full reset for defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero to work his magic. In 2022, Evero’s Broncos defense ranked ninth in expected points added (EPA) allowed despite the team’s terrible 5-12 record (thanks, Nathaniel Hackett).
NFL Expert Win Total Pick: Carolina Panthers Over 5.5 Total Wins -110 at Caesars
@Loughy_D: Los Angeles Chargers O/U 10.5 Wins: A lot of people are assuming that the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense is going to struggle this year because Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and the oft-injured Mike Williams are no longer with them.
That’s not how I see it.
Brandon Staley was an objectively terrible coach who found ways to lose late in games, and Los Angeles didn’t have a reliable rushing attack, which consequently skewed them too heavily in the passing game.
Under head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, we can safely count on those problems to be resolved in 2024.
NFL Expert Win Total Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Over 10.5 Total Wins +220 at FanDuel
@DannyBurke5 – New England Patriots O/U 4.5 Total Wins: Choosing between Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye for a team coming off a 4-13 season with a new head coach and virtually no established offensive weapons is not an appealing proposition.
However, betting on New England’s win total under 4.5 at the price of +130 is.
I anticipate minimal improvement for this team that’s currently listed as an underdog in every game. They should not only expect them to stay below five wins for the second-consecutive season, but they could also potentially finish as the worst team in the NFL.
NFL Expert Win Total Pick: New England Patriots Under 4.5 Total Wins +130 at BetMGM
