Happy Thanksgiving! If you’re looking for some extra loose change on Black Friday, you’re in the right place. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois, Justin Martin and Nathan Joyce have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop and anytime touchdown scorer markets for Thanksgiving, including Tyler Lockett and Jake Ferguson.
NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop Bets & Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Packers-Lions NFL Player Prop Bet | Thanksgiving
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Target: Romeo Doubs at FanDuel
The Green Bay Packers have ruled out tight end Luke Musgrave, running back Aaron Jones and running back Emanuel Wilson. Backup wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks and backup tight end Josiah Deguara are questionable, too. Good luck, Jordan Love.
The team’s top two wide receivers, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, are both healthy at least. We’re locking in some action on Doubs because he leads Watson in targets per game (6.6 to 5.5), route participation (83.9% to 92.4%) and, most importantly, yards per game (39.7 to 36.7).
Doubs gets slept on compared to Watson, a former second-round pick. But while Watson has elite physical traits — his 6-foot-4, 208-pound frame and 4.36 40-yard dash time are a lethal combination — Doubs is the more reliable target, which is why he leads Watson in the aforementioned metrics.
Doubs’ targets are also more valuable because they come closer to the line of scrimmage: he owns a 71.6% catchable target rate, while Watson owns a 61.5% rate. With the Packers trading as 7.5-point underdogs, we can expect plenty of passing, and Doubs tallied 95 receiving yards on nine receptions against the Lions earlier this year. Watson caught just two passes for 25 yards in that game.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop: Romeo Doubs Over 40+ Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Packers-Lions NFL Anytime Touchdown Pick | Thanksgiving
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Target: Sam LaPorta at FanDuel
I was on David Montgomery to score a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, and he delivered twice, both times in spectacular fashion: he scored on a 75-yard breakaway run in Week 10 before scoring the game-winning touchdown with just second on the clock in Week 11. He is now no shorter than -143 to score a touchdown after consecutive weeks in the plus money, so we’re looking elsewhere for our Packers-Lions anytime touchdown scorer bet this Thanksgiving.
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been awesome so far. He has racked up 50 receptions for 492 yards and four scores, which is seriously impressive considering how often rookie tight ends struggle to make the jump to the NFL. LaPorta is coming off a pair of scoreless weeks in which he totaled only seven receptions for 58 yards, but I think this is a great spot for him to bounce back, and we’re getting a good price for it, too.
LaPorta trails only wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets inside the 20-yard line (5 to 8) and targets inside the 10-yard line (4 to 7). But while St. Brown’s odds sit only +110, we can find LaPorta priced at +175 on FanDuel. That’s an off-market number: LaPorta is no shorter than +160 elsewhere, and he is +156 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. I can’t guarantee that LaPorta will find paydirt on Turkey Day, but we’re getting enough value here to warrant a wager.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Anytime Touchdown Pick: Sam LaPorta +175 at FanDuel
Commanders-Cowboys NFL Player Prop Bet | Thanksgiving
Expert: Justin Martin
Target: Logan Thomas at DraftKings
The Washington Commanders are 12.5-point underdogs on the road. What could go wrong for them? Naturally, we will target one of the Commanders’ top pass-catchers in what should be a pass-heavy game script for Sam Howell on Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys, who will be playing in their 56th Thanksgiving Day game. Logan Thomas headlines our top player prop pick Commanders-Cowboys. Let’s talk about why we’re targeting the veteran ex-quarterback.
Logan Thomas was targeted eight times last week — fourth-most among tight ends in Week 11 and second-most on the Commanders, with running back Brian Robinson tallying one more target than him. I imagine that to be difficult to replicate against a Cowboys defense that allows the sixth-fewest yards to opposing running backs in the passing game.
Let’s talk more about Logan Thomas. The former college and NFL quarterback has eclipsed this line in seven of 10 games this season and in all six losses. The Cowboys’ defense is elite, but they’re susceptible to giving up yards to the tight end position. Four of the last five starting tight ends have surpassed their receiving line. Expect Howell to look Thomas’ way early and often with the Commanders likely trailing and Howell’s pass attempts line set at 39.5.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop: Logan Thomas Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -115 at DraftKings
Commanders-Cowboys NFL Anytime Touchdown Pick | Thanksgiving
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Who: Jake Ferguson at FanDuel
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Cowboys allowing Dak Prescott to chuck the ball around more this season has been Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson. The heir apparent to Dalton Schultz has had six games this season with five or more targets (5, 7, 7, 10). He has caught four or more passes five times this season. Ferguson’s 39 receptions, 386 receiving yards and four receiving scores all rank fourth on the Cowboys.
And as good as Ferguson has been just as an overall receiving option, he’s been arguably the No. 1 target near the end zone for Dak Prescott. In fact, no other player in the NFL has more red-zone targets than Ferguson, who has 21. He has only caught four of those targets, so that number surely has to increase at some point. Why not this week? I think his anytime touchdown bet at +200 is also a great stand-alone bet this week.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Anytime Touchdown Pick: Jake Ferguson +200 at FanDuel
49ers-Seahawks NFL Player Prop Bet | Thanksgiving
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Who: Tyler Lockett at BetMGM
That’s plenty of rambling from us. What does OddsShopper’s model want action on? Well, for the 49ers-Seahawks game, it wants action on one mispriced Tyler Lockett over. His receptions total sits at 4.5 across the market, but several public books aren’t stacking the juice far enough on the over. You can buy the over for -120 at DraftKings and BetMGM, but at Pinnacle, a sharp book, it’s trading all the way down at -148.
OddsShopper’s model works by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness and hold, then spitting out a wager’s “true odds.” When a wager’s “true odds” are higher than the implied probability available at a public book, you’ll see it appear. Take advantage of our Black Friday sale to sign up for OddsShopper Premium at half the price!
Best NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop: Tyler Lockett Over 4.5 Receptions -120 at DraftKings
49ers-Seahawks NFL Anytime Touchdown Pick | Thanksgiving
Expert: Justin Martin
Who: Brock Purdy at FanDuel
Let’s take a shot here with an offense loaded with weapons from top to bottom. The San Francisco 49ers have the best running back in all of football, an excellent wide receiver room, and one of the best tight ends in the league. That’s all led by undrafted quarterback Brock Purdy.
Purdy finds himself within distance of the highly coveted MVP Award. According to FanDuel, Purdy has the sixth-best odds to win the award. Speaking of FanDuel, they’re also offering the best odds for Purdy to run a touchdown in at +650 on Thursday. That’s a price I’m willing to sprinkle on.
Most expect the 49ers to be living in the red zone come Thursday. What’s stopping Purdy from sneaking one in or taking one in for himself on a bootleg or a broken pocket? The rest of the major market has Purdy settled at +500, so buy this off-market number at FanDuel.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Anytime Touchdown Pick: Brock Purdy +650 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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