Week 14 brings us an interesting card featuring a few pivotal matchups, even on the afternoon slate, especially Bills-Chiefs. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois, Nathan Joyce and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 14, including Lamar Jackson, for Rams-Ravens, Bills-Chiefs, Texans-Jets and more.
NFL Player Props for Week 14: Picks for Lamar Jackson, Bijan Robinson & More
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Lamar Jackson Pick
Rams-Ravens Odds
Odds via bet365
Rams: +280 | Ravens: -360
Rams +7.5: -110 | Ravens -7.5: -110
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Lamar Jackson Player Prop
Post-bye Lamar Jackson is a beast. When he took over the Baltimore Ravens offense after the bye in 2018, he racked up 119 rushing yards on 26 attempts. During his MVP campaign in 2019, Jackson erupted for 61 rushing yards on 16 attempts. He ran for 65 on 16 in 2020, 120 on 21 in 2021, and 31 on 11 in 2022. Jackson has been dealing with an injury this week, but he should be good to go.
Jackson and the Ravens have been moving away from using Jackson as a rusher, but this is a spot where I expect him to flash his mobility. Jackson lit up the Rams for 95 rushing yards on just eight attempts in 2019. These are two very different teams now, but the Rams still struggle against mobile quarterbacks. They have coughed up 208 rushing yards to quarterbacks this year. Anthony Richardson scampered for 56 yards on the ground against them in early October. Jalen Hurts went for 72 and Joshua Dobbs went for 47. The Rams did hold Kyler Murray to just two rushing yards two weeks ago, but Murray was working back from injury, and he only ran one time.
I trust Jackson to get over the 47.5 that’s currently available at bet365. Jackson is averaging 47.8 rushing yards per game this year, beating this number in five of his 12 starts. He averaged 63.7 rushing yards per game last year, clearing the over in eight of 12 starts. While new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Baltimore’s front office have done a good job putting Jackson in a situation where he doesn’t need to use his legs as much, his historic post-bye numbers suggest this is a spot we’ll see plenty of scrambles from him.
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards -110 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Jake Browning Pick
Colts-Bengals Odds
Odds via bet365
Colts: +110 | Bengals: -130
Colts +2: -110 | Bengals -2: -110
Over 44: -110| Under 44: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Jake Browning Player Prop
The Cincinnati Bengals are a slight home favorite over the Indianapolis Colts this weekend despite the absence of Joe Burrow. That’s because backup quarterback Jake Browning has looked more than serviceable. He completed 86.5% of his passes last week for 9.6 yards per attempt but just one score. He also ran in a touchdown himself. His lone touchdown pass was a 76-yard catch and run by Ja’Marr Chase.
OddsShopper’s model is keen on this Jake Browning player prop for Sunday. Browning sits at odds of -130 to throw a pair of touchdown passes on both DraftKings and bet365, but the true odds of this wager are estimated to be only -143. The model calculates true odds by indexing the odds across the market and adjusting for both book sharpness and hold.
Browning has thrown three touchdown passes in his short NFL career, none of which have come in the same game. Worse, the Colts are pretty good at keeping other teams from throwing it into the end zone. The Colts have coughed up just 13 passing touchdowns on the year, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Jake Browning Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -130 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Alvin Kamara Pick
Panthers-Saints Odds
Odds via bet365
Panthers: +220 | Saints: -270
Panthers +6: -110 | Saints -6: -110
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Alvin Kamara Player Prop
This bet has won over 85% of the time the last seven weeks. So, what is this virtual lock of an NFL player prop bet this week? It’s Alvin Kamara, of course.
The dude has just been a flat-out cash cow with this receiving prop this season.
Right now, Kamara is listed with a receiving yardage total of 34.5 against the atrocious Carolina Panthers. Right off the hop, OddsShopper’s model (use code NATHAN to get 20% off if you wanna try it out) lists this as one of the best positive EV bets on the board with an expected win rate of 53%.
I think we’re going to see that expected win rate rise over the course of the weekend, and we’re probably going to lose value as people react to the market. But, right now, we’re getting it at -110, so you’re going to want to go fire this baby up at bet365 RIGHT NOW!
It’s no secret that New Orleans is basically banged up all over, especially in the receiving corps, which is part of why this Kamara prop sticks out as such a great bet. He’s earned 20 targets over the last three games, and has 58, 50 and 33 yards in those games as well.
Now, if you’re telling me I’m getting upwards of seven targets against a team like the Panthers, I’m taking the over on yards every day of the week — and twice on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 34.5 Receiving Yards for -110 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Garrett Wilson Pick
Texans-Jets Odds
Odds via bet365
Texans: -180 | Jets: +160
Texans -3.5: -110 | Jets +3.5: -110
Over 33: -110 | Under 33: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Justin Martin
Garrett Wilson Player Prop
The Tim Boyle experience for the New York Jets was a laugher for the rest of the league. He lasted just two starts and threw more interceptions than touchdowns, losing both games. Now, the Jets are back to Zach Wilson for the presumed future — a much better option for Garrett Wilson.
Garrett Wilson headlines our top player prop bet in Texans-Jets. The weather will be a slight concern come Sunday. Rain and wind are in the forecast, but Wilson’s target share with Zach Wilson under center can’t be ignored. He has logged the seventh-most targets in the league this year despite playing with Boyle twice. The Wilsons should benefit from a pass-heavy game script, with the Texans being favored by 3.5 points and Jets running back Breece Hall being banged up. Hall is expected to suit up, but he has been a near non-factor the last few weeks.
The Texans have a lethal secondary — Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson have been exceptional this season, but opposing wide receivers have logged big games against the duo. That list includes Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Mike Evans, all going over their receiving line.
It may sound crazy, but Garrett Wilson has topped his receiving line in seven of 10 games when Zach Wilson is under center. Using OddsShopper’s model, it’s clear that the best line is over at ESPNBet, where they’re beating FanDuel by three yards.
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards -113 at ESPNBet
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Bijan Robinson Pick
Buccaneers-Falcons Odds
Odds via bet365
Buccaneers: +110 | Falcons: -130
Buccaneers +2: -125 | Falcons -2: -110
Over 41: -110 | Under 41: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Bijan Robinson Player Prop
I’m not sure I want to relinquish the Social Media Running Back title from Bijan Robinson’s name JUST yet, but if he can cash us a ticket this weekend, it’ll go a long way in doing so. In this Week 14 matchup against the Bucs, Robinson is listed with a receiving yards prop of 20.5 yards, and we’re getting a bargain over at FanDuel with it being only -114 right now.
OddsShopper’s model has this as one of the best +EV bets on the entire board of NFL props this week and is listing it with a 55% expected win rate. I mean, you LOVE to see that.
Taking a look at his last two games, Robinson has been more involved in the passing game, and earning 11 targets over the last two weeks.
Yes, he’s only cashed the over of 20.5 receiving yards in just two of his last six games, but there’s a reason why I choose to bet on guys like Robinson when yardage totals aren’t overly high. He can cash an over like this one ONE CATCH.
The rookie running back is in the 90th percentile in speed, and the dude can flat out boogie once he has the ball in space. In fact, he has three catches of 20-plus yards this season. One of them came two weeks ago against the Saints.
The Falcons will need to lean on their first-round running back with Desmond Ridder being a bit shaky running the offense, so let’s fire this one up at -114 at FanDuel.
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards for -114 at FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 14 | Jerick McKinnon Pick
Bills-Chiefs Odds
Odds via bet365
Bills: +100 | Chiefs: -120
Bills +1: -110 | Chiefs -1: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Bills-Chiefs Player Prop
The Buffalo Bills will visit the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend with their season basically on the line. Kansas City won’t have running back Isiah Pacheco, who has already been ruled out with a shoulder injury, leaving Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to take over the work in the backfield. This is an absolute smash spot for McKinnon.
While Jerick McKinnon may not be the most exciting player on the field come Sunday, he is, by default, one of the best receiving options Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal. McKinnon has averaged 1.9 receptions and 15.5 receiving yards per game this year, and so with Pacheco out, the books have boosted his line to… 18.5? That just doesn’t seem like enough to me, especially in a game that is projected to be close.
McKinnon was a crucial receiving option for Mahomes last year, too — he averaged 3.3 receptions and 30.1 receiving yards per game. He even caught three passes for 29 yards against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense continues to struggle against talented satellite backs like McKinnon — the Bills have allowed 559 receiving yards to running backs this year, fourth-most in the NFL. Buy the over 18.5 at anything short of -125 and consider laddering it up to 40 yards, a mark McKinnon cleared five times last year
Best NFL Week 14 Player Prop Pick: Jerick McKinnon Over 18.5 Receiving Yards -115 at ESPN
