The NFL playoffs are quickly approaching. We’re quickly running out of time to fade the worst defenses in the league, so make sure to take advantage of the best spots while you still can. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 16, including Jonathan Taylor, for Colts-Falcons, Dolphins, Cowboys, Lions-Vikings and more.
NFL Player Props for Week 16: Picks for Jonathan Taylor & More
NFL Player Props for Week 16 | Jonathan Taylor Pick
Colts-Falcons Odds
Odds via FanDuel
Colts: +118 | Falcons: -138
Colts +2.5: -110 | Falcons -2.5: -110
Over 44.5: -115 | Under 44.5: -105
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Justin Martin
Jonathan Taylor Player Prop
The return of Jonathan Taylor has me all giddy to back his player prop bets. Now that he has logged full practices on Wednesday and Thursday, he should explode onto the scene against the Atlanta Falcons. Let’s dive into the top Colts-Falcons player prop bet for Sunday, Week 16.
Just to be transparent, the Colts are listing Taylor as questionable leading into Sunday. This doesn’t mean much, because as stated above, he has logged full practices leading into this matchup. Meanwhile, backup running back Zack Moss has already been ruled out, making it Taylor’s backfield to dominate.
The injury that held Taylor out for multiple weeks was a thumb issue that required surgery. That should have almost zero effect on Taylor from a running game perspective. If it was a leg injury, I’d have some concern, but because it’s not, Taylor should be a full-go against a Falcons squad that allowed 87 yards to Chuba Hubbard last week — and 100-plus to Buccaneers back Rachaad White before that.
Best NFL Week 16 Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 67.5 Rushing Yards -115 on BetMGM
NFL Player Props for Week 16 | Raheem Mostert Pick
Cowboys-Dolphins Odds
Odds via bet365
Cowboys: +110 | Dolphins: -130
Cowboys +1.5: -105 | Dolphins -1.5: -115
Over 49.5: -110 | Under 49.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Raheem Mostert Player Prop
In one of the best games of the week, the Miami Dolphins will host the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are in the mix for divisional titles, although Miami has far more of an edge than Dallas does. Likewise, both squads have realistic shots at the first overall seed in their conferences.
Miami’s starting running back, Raheem Mostert, has been a monster this year. The veteran back has racked up a career (and NFL)-high 18 rushing scores to go with another two through the air. Still, OddsShopper’s model recommends fading him come Sunday — at least on the receiving yardage markets.
Mostert is averaging 1.7 receptions and 12.2 receiving yards per game. He now takes on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (26.4). But OddsShopper’s model doesn’t care about stats or matchups — it just cares about the market, and the market also points to value on the under in this spot.
You’ll find Mostert priced at odds of -143 (58.9%) to stay under 7.5 receiving yards at Pinnacle, a sharp book. You can add an extra three yards onto that number for odds of -160 (61.5%) at Fanatics and PointsBet, which is worse than the true odds of -177 (63.9%) according to the model. That number is generated by indexing the odds across the market and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
Best NFL Week 16 Player Prop Pick: Raheem Mostert Under 10.5 Receiving Yards -160 at Fanatics
NFL Player Props for Week 16 | Michael Badgley Pick
Lions-Vikings Odds
Odds via bet365
Lions: -160 | Vikings: +135
Lions -3: -110 | Vikings +3: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Michael Badgley Player Prop
Kicker props are fun, I promise. We’re locking in a wager on Michael Badgley to record over 7.5 kicking points on Caesars for the sweet price of -104. This one is trading at -108 on Pinnacle, so we’re getting a margin edge relative to the sharp book’s price. Badgley may have just retaken the starting job last week, but I have faith in him here.
Badgley was Detroit’s starting kicker down the stretch last year. He wasn’t perfect — he missed four total field goal attempts, good for a conversion rate of 85.7%, but he never missed an extra point and tallied an average of 8.1 kicking points per game. Badgley relieved Jaret Patterson of his starting duties last week, and he hit all six of his extra-point attempts against the Denver Broncos.
The Detroit Lions will take on a Minnesota Vikings defense that boasts the third-fewest red-zone trips allowed per game (2.6) and the seventh-lowest touchdown conversion rate allowed on those trips (48.7%). However, that correlates to a lot of stalled-out drives, so Minnesota ranks 26th in field goals allowed per game (2). Badgley recorded 10 kicking points in his last matchup with the Minnesota defense.
The Vikings, like the Lions, played in a domed stadium. Badgley has been oddly inefficient indoors, converting only 95.8% of his extra points and 75% of his field goals inside, but those numbers feel more like noise than a signal. Although head coach Dan Campbell loves to go for it on fourth down, Badgley should get enough opportunities against this defense to feast on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 16 Player Prop Pick: Michael Badgley Over 7.5 Kicking Points -104 at Caesars
NFL Player Props for Week 16 | David Njoku Pick
Browns-Texans Odds
Odds via bet365
Browns: -155 | Texans: +130
Browns -2.5: -120 | Texans +2.5: +100
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
David Njoku Player Prop
Joe Flacco loves his tight ends, and, through three games as Cleveland’s starter, David Njoku has been no exception. Njoku caught just two of six targets for 17 yards against the Los Angeles Rams in Flacco’s debut before erupting for 91 and 104-yard performances in his next two starts. I expect more of the same versus the Houston Texans.
The Texans have struggled to stop opposing tight ends this year. Houston has allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position per game (62.5). Recent games have laid bare their struggles — Chigoziem Okonkwo racked up 36 last week, beating his season average (28.2). Tyler Conklin racked up 57, also beating his average (37.4). Neither Okonkwo nor Conklin are as game-breakingly athletic as Njoku, nor are they nearly as heavily featured in their offensive schemes, so it’s safe to expect big things from Njoku this week.
You’ll find Njoku’s receiving yardage total set to 49.5 or 50.5 depending on the book you use. The over 49.5 will cost you only -110 at bet365, which is a bit of an outlier price — the same bet will cost you -120 or worse at just about every other book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Njoku at -125 to go over the 49.5. Njoku has beaten this number in seven of his 14 appearances this year and in seven of his last nine.
Best NFL Week 16 Player Prop Pick: David Njoku Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -110 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 16 | Chuba Hubbard Pick
Packers-Panthers Odds
Odds via FanDuel
Packers: -220 | Panthers: +184
Packers -4.5: -110 | Panthers -4.5: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Justin Martin
Chuba Hubbard Player Prop
If you haven’t been keeping an eye on the Carolina Panthers, nobody blames you. But be aware that Chuba Hubbard has been one of the best running backs in the league in the last few weeks. That is not an understatement. In the previous three weeks, Hubbard has averaged 92 yards on the ground and totaled 70 rush attempts.
The efficiency doesn’t necessarily have to be there if Hubbard is going to touch the ball 20 times a game. The books expect much of the same come Sunday against the Packers — Hubbard’s rushing attempts line is set at 16.5 with vig on the over. Let’s dive more into this Chuba Hubbard player prop bet that we’re backing in Packers-Panthers.
The Panthers don’t need or want Bryce Young dropping back to pass more than 35 times again — even if the game script reads for Young to sling the ball around the field. The rookie quarterback has been sacked 51 times this season, which ranks second among all quarterbacks. So, the recipe is to hang the ball off to Hubbard and let him drive them down the field.
At 70.5 rushing yards, FanDuel is coming in with the best number by two yards — a number Hubbard has eclipsed in his last three games. Against a Packers defense that has allowed seven straight starting running backs to eclipse their rushing yards line, Hubbard is in line to make it eight and give the Panthers a shot to win two games in a row at home.
Best NFL Week 16 Player Prop Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards -114 on FanDuel
