The NFL playoffs are right around the corner. Some teams still have something to play for, while others, well, have a postseason on the couch on the horizon. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 17, including Bijan Robinson, for Falcons-Bears, Dolphins-Ravens, Colts-Falcons and more.
NFL Player Props for Week 17: Picks for Bijan Robinson & More
NFL Player Props for Week 17 | Jonathan Taylor Pick
Raiders-Colts Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Raiders: +165 | Colts: -200
Raiders +4: -110 | Colts -4: -110
Over 42.5: -110 | Under 42.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Justin Martin
Jonathan Taylor Player Prop
The Colts had no concern feeding the football to Jonathan Taylor last week after missing nearly a month due to having thumb surgery. Taylor registered 18 rush attempts in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Colts rode Taylor on the first drive of the game for six attempts, including a touchdown on the one-yard line. Let’s shift our focus to Sunday’s matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Books are offering Taylor’s rushing attempts line at 17.5 at plus-money — a +EV bet that correlates well with our top bet for Jonathan Taylor: over 74.5 rushing yards on FanDuel. Bettors should have faith that if Taylor runs the ball 18 times, he’ll soar over his rushing line.
The Colts will again be without backup running back Zack Moss on Sunday. Moss, one of the most serviceable backups in the NFL, is a significant loss for the Colts. But now that Taylor is back to full strength, it’s his backfield. Trey Sermon will get a handful of carries, but this game script reads for Taylor to be used early and often in the run game.
There is no question that the Raiders defense has flipped a switch with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. They’ve allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game in the last three weeks and the fewest points. But if the Raiders offense can’t produce, which they haven’t as of late, the Colts will be able to run Taylor through the ground.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards -114 on FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 17 | Nelson Agholor Pick
Dolphins-Ravens Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Dolphins: +145 | Ravens: -175
Dolphins +3.5: -120 | Ravens -3.5: +100
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Nelson Agholor Player Prop
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will square off at 1 p.m. in what’s likely the game of the day. Both squads are riding high off wins over NFC teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. The Ravens are trading as field-goal favorites for Sunday’s game.
OddsShopper’s model recommends fading Baltimore wide receiver Nelson Agholor on the player prop markets. Agholor plays in a crowded receiver room that features the likes of rookie Zay Flowers, breakout tight end Isaiah Likely, former first-round pick Rashod Bateman and veteran superstar Odell Beckham Jr. It’s easy for him to get lost.
Agholor is averaging 21.6 receiving yards per game and 11.6 yards per reception. He has gone over this number in just seven of 15 games, and he last cleared it back in Week 14. Agholor has tallied two or fewer targets in all but six of his games this year, so he probably won’t get many chances to go over this number.
OddsShopper’s model recommends fading Agholor because of a market disparity between FanDuel and other books. Agholor is priced at -113 to stay under the 17.5 there, but he’ll cost you -112 to stay under the 14.5 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. The model estimates a fair price for the under 17.5 to be -122, shorter than the number available at FanDuel.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: Nelson Agholor Under 17.5 Receiving Yards -113 at FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 17 | Derek Carr Pick
Saints-Buccaneers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Saints: +120 | Buccaneers: -145
Saints +2.5: -110 | Buccaneers -2.5: -110
Over 42.5: -110 | Under 42.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Derek Carr Player Prop
The 2023 season likely hasn’t gone as the New Orleans Saints hoped. Still, they have a chance to back into a playoff spot by winning the NFC South, and a win over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a big first step. I expect quarterback Derek Carr to step up in this must-win spot — no matter how shaky he has looked this season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense. Their solid run-blocking leads opposing offenses to throw the ball early and often, and, in turn, they have allowed the most passing yards to quarterbacks on a per-game basis (284.4).
The Buccaneers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 250-plus yards in their last three games. The names they’ve faced aren’t exactly impressive — the combination of Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard (304), Jordan Love (284) and Desmond Ridder (347).
The Saints and Carr were brutalized by the Buccaneers earlier this season. Carr threw just 127 passing yards on 37 attempts. However, a bounce-back showing should be in the cards for the veteran quarterback.
Carr’s numbers this year are solid. Despite getting knocked out of several games with injuries, he is averaging 227.8 passing yards per game. He has eclipsed 250 in six of his 15 appearances, including last Thursday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. With some extra rest for a do-or-die game, look for Carr to pop off on Sunday.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: Derek Carr 250+ Passing Yards -102 at FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 17 | C.J. Beathard Pick
Panthers-Jaguars Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Panthers: +165 | Jaguars: -200
Panthers +4: -110 | Jaguars -4: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
C.J. Beathard Player Prop
The Jacksonville Jaguars have ruled out Trevor Lawrence already, which means backup C.J. Beathard will start against the Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have a lot to lose in a crowded AFC South, while the Panthers have nothing to hope for until next season. That said, I’m fading Beathard in this spot because his passing yardage total is inefficient.
You’ll find Beathard listed at odds of -115 to stay under 222.5 passing yards. That may not sound like a lot of yardage, but the Panthers have given up only 186.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers frequently give opposing teams the ball with a short field. They also have a decent defense that fares much better against the pass than the run. Those two factors, combined with the leads they often surrender, have suppressed the passing yardage numbers opposing quarterbacks can produce.
The recent results also point to value here. Last week, Jordan Love threw for only 219 yards in a game wherein the Green Bay Packers scored 33 points. The week before, Desmond Ridder threw for only 152 yards. Derek Carr went for only 119 the week before that, and Baker Mayfield went for 202 the week before that. The Panthers haven’t allowed an opposing quarterback to cross the 223-yard mark since Tua Tagovailoa did in Week 6. Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud were both held under 200 by the Panthers.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: C.J. Beathard Under 222.5 Passing Yards -115 at BetMGM
NFL Player Props for Week 17 | Bijan Robinson Pick
Falcons-Bears Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Falcons: +125 | Bears: -150
Falcons +3: -130 | Bears -3: -105
Over 38: -110 | Under 38: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Bijan Robinson Player Prop
The Chicago Bears have given up the third-fewest overall rushing yards to running backs (982) but the most receiving yards to them (887). That puts rookie Bijan Robinson in a smash spot as a receiver — if head coach Arthur Smith chooses to call his number. Robinson is averaging 24.9 receiving yards per game this year, going over his listed total of 21.5 in nine of 15 games.
Chicago’s defense just hasn’t figured out how to keep running backs from cutting them up through the air. Last week, James Conner gashed them for a team-high 67 receiving yards on five receptions. The Browns didn’t have much success the week before that, but the Lions got 35 combined receiving yards out of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery a week before that one. Gibbs had shredded them for 59 receiving yards — with Montgomery adding another 22 — just a few weeks beforehand.
Robinson has the athleticism to turn a screen into a house call. Lock in the over 21.5 receiving yards for him at odds of -115. The same bet is trading at odds of -127 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. The implied odds of this line are only 53.5%, which is worse than Robinson’s actual hit rate (60%) and over the last five games (80%). Look for him to capitalize against the Chicago defense this weekend — especially with wet and windy conditions in the forecast likely forcing Ridder to check the ball down.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards -115 at Hard Rock
