The NFL playoffs have almost arrived, so if you’re looking to fade bad defenses — or take advantage of players’ contract incentives — you’re almost out of time. I’m here to identify several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 18, including Jared Goff, for Vikings-Lions, Jaguars-Titans, Seahawks-Cardinals and more.
NFL Player Props for Week 18: Picks for Jared Goff & More
NFL Player Props for Week 18 | DeAndre Hopkins Pick
Jaguars-Titans Odds
Odds via bet365
Jaguars: -220 | Titans: +180
Jaguars -4.5: -110 | Titans +4.5: -110
Over 42: -110 | Under 42: -110
When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
DeAndre Hopkins Player Prop
The Tennessee Titans are out of the playoff race, but DeAndre Hopkins can make himself some extra money with a solid performance on Sunday. If he catches seven more passes, he’ll earn a $250,000 bonus. He’ll also earn a $250,000 bonus for catching two touchdowns or for racking up 39 receiving yards. Look for him to cash a few of them on Sunday.
I’m backing Hopkins to record over 63.5 receiving yards on Sunday. He caught four passes for 59 receiving yards against the Jaguars back in Week 11. Hopkins caught all seven of his targets for 72 yards in a meaningless game versus the Houston Texans last week, so it’s not like he has tapped out now that the Titans are eliminated.
The flip side is that Tennessee’s opponents, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have everything to play for on Sunday. Still, Hopkins is an effective enough receiver to cash this prop, especially against their mediocre secondary — the Jaguars have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to wideouts this year (161). You’ll find Hopkins priced at just -110 to cash the over at bet365, but Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -140 for this one.
Best NFL Week 18 Player Prop Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Over 63.5 Receiving Yards -110 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 18 | Jared Goff Pick
Vikings-Lions Odds
Odds via bet365
Vikings: +160 | Lions: -190
Vikings +3.5: -110 | Lions -3.5: -110
Over 46: -110 | Under 46: -110
When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Jared Goff Player Prop
The Detroit Lions have locked up the NFC North. However, their seeding hasn’t been finalized. While they can’t pass the San Francisco 49ers for the top seed, they can either finish as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The former outcome would guarantee them a home game in the second round, but it would require losses by both Philadelphia and Dallas.
The silver lining for bettors is that Detroit won’t know anything about the outcome of Dallas’ or Philadelphia’s games. The Lions will play at 1 p.m. ET; the Cowboys and Eagles will play at 4:25 p.m. ET. Head coach Dan Campbell has already said he plans to play the starters, so we can trust Jared Goff to get a full workload on Sunday.
The Minnesota Vikings can still make the playoffs, but it’s very unlikely. The New York Times reports their odds to be around 3%, as they need several of the 8-8 NFC teams to finish the year at 8-9.
OddsShopper’s model recommends trusting Detroit quarterback Jared Goff on the player prop markets. Goff clocks in at odds of -113 to go over 208.5 passing yards at FanDuel. You’ll find him priced at -136 to go over the 211.5 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Our tools estimate the true odds — or a breakeven price — of this wager to be -125, which means a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll is getting enough value to wager $23.
Best NFL Week 17 Player Prop Pick: Jared Goff Over 208.5 Passing Yards -113 at FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 18 | Baker Mayfield Pick
Buccaneers-Panthers Odds
Odds via bet365
Buccaneers: -225 | Panthers: +185
Buccaneers -4: -110 | Panthers +4: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Baker Mayfield Player Prop
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield in the offseason, he agreed to several stat-based incentives. Those incentives require him to rank inside the top set number of quarterbacks in either the league or the NFC, and while he currently ranks there, it’s not guaranteed he’ll finish above that threshold.
Unfortunately for Mayfield, the Carolina Panthers have allowed the fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks (185.8), in no small part because of their inability to stop opposing ground games. They held Mayfield to only 202 passing yards just a few weeks back as running back Rachaad White galloped for 84 yards on the ground.
That said, Carolina’s defense is baked into Mayfield’s line. His passing yardage prop sits at only 223.5 on FanDuel, which is a number Mayfield has cleared in 10 of his 16 overall starts and five of his eight road starts. Mayfield is averaging 244.2 passing yards per game with a median showing of 246.
A silver lining for Mayfield is that the Buccaneers don’t run the ball that well. While White has flashed some upside, Tampa’s offensive line ranks 32nd in run-block win rate, and the team ranks 32nd in yards per rush attempt (3.4).
The Buccaneers have a ton on the line this weekend, as they’ll lock up the NFC South title and a playoff berth with a win over the Panthers. While that may prevent Mayfield from going all-out to cash his contract incentives, it may affect his decision-making late if the Buccaneers get out to an early lead.
Best NFL Week 18 Player Prop Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 223.5 Passing Yards -115 at FanDuel
NFL Player Props for Week 18 | Zach Charbonnet Pick
Seahawks-Cardinals Odds
Odds via bet365
Seahawks: -155 | Cardinals: +130
Seahawks -3: -110 | Cardinals +3: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Zach Charbonnet Player Prop
The Seattle Seahawks will visit the Arizona Cardinals with their playoff lives on the line. The Seahawks can return to the playoffs for a second straight year with a win and a loss by the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers will play their game versus the Chicago Bears at the same time as Seattle, so the Seahawks can’t be eliminated before their game begins.
The Seahawks have dealt with several injuries in their backfield this year, but the silver lining is that they’re healthy now. Week 1 starter Kenneth Walker III has logged double-digit carries in each of his last three games, while backup Zach Charbonnet has run the ball just eight times through that span. However, he needed just four carries to get 16 yards in Week 15.
OddsShopper’s model recommends getting some action down on Charbonnet to go over the 10.5 rushing yard mark because of a major odds disparity.
He’ll cost you -125 to beat the 10.5 at Fanatics but at -109 to go over the 14.5 at Pinnacle. Our model lists the true odds of this one at -142, so a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll is getting enough edge on this market to warrant a $30 wager.
Best NFL Week 18 Player Prop Pick: Zach Charbonnet Over 10.5 Rushing Yards -125 at Fanatics
