Last year’s AFC South race was quite the story. The Tennessee Titans started out dominant early, only to collapse down the stretch, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to slide into the playoffs — and score a record 27-point comeback win in the Wild Card round. Let’s dive into the 2023 AFC South preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our AFC South winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
NFL Predictions 2023: AFC South Preview & Futures Picks (July 17)
AFC South Winner Odds
AFC South Preview: The Favorite
The Jacksonville Jaguars took the NFL by storm through the second half of the season. Before their Week 10 bye, the Jaguars were 3-7, but they finished at 9-8 and won the AFC South. However, there were signs that they could contend before their turnaround. The Jaguars ranked 10th in offensive expected points added (EPA) before the bye. They stayed pat in the metric from Weeks 11 to 18. The key to their turnaround: their defense improving from 15th in defensive EPA to fifth.
Jacksonville's performance in EPA metrics suggests that last year's surge wasn't a fluke -- and that their record could've been even better if not for some bad luck. With another offseason for quarterback Trevor Lawrence to grow and prepare with his supporting cast, which now includes wide receiver Calvin Ridley and running back Tank Bigsby, it's safe to expect solid offensive production from the Jaguars. Losing tackle Cam Robinson for the first four games is tough for an offensive line that already ranked only 31st in pass-block win rate, but that raises the question of how much worse things can even get.
Jacksonville's defense is mostly the same as it was last year. The Jaguars lost edge rusher Arden Key to the Tennessee Titans but will get another offseason of improvement from fellow edge rushers Josh Allen, who enters a contract year, and Travon Walker, last year's first overall pick. In the secondary, cornerback Tyson Campbell is coming off a sneaky-great season after recording a PFF grade of 82.1, but he doesn't have a ton of help. A similar situation is true in the trenches: defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton recorded a PFF grade of 74.9 but won't have much help.
AFC South Preview: The Field
The AFC South is a rebuilding division. The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans both took quarterbacks early in the first round. The Tennessee Titans did so with the first pick in the second round. Although their signing of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins suggests they're still trying to contend with current starter Ryan Tannehill, some bad luck before the trade deadline could lead the team to sell veteran assets like safety Kevin Byard or running back Derrick Henry.
I'm deeply skeptical of the Titans. I already locked in a five-unit wager fading them earlier in the offseason, and I stand by that take despite the Hopkins signing. The Titans ranked a dismal 26th in offensive EPA per play last year. Although Tannehill's injury often gets the blame for the team's poor performance, the Titans were only 23rd in offensive EPA per play before he first missed time in Week 8. The Titans also ranked a dismal 22nd in defensive EPA per play last year. They rank only 16th since head coach Mike Vrabel took over in 2018.
Obviously, neither the Colts nor the Texans did anything in EPA metrics last year. Indianapolis finished an embarrassing 31st in offensive EPA per play, only ahead of Houston, with both teams almost twice as bad as the 30th-ranked New York Jets. The Colts ranked 13th in defensive EPA, ahead of the 18th-ranked Texans, both of whom outpaced the Titans. Don't ascribe too much meaning to those numbers -- both organizations have new head coaches and will likely start new quarterbacks.
Jacksonville's strongest competition could come from the new-look Houston Texans. New head coach DeMeco Ryans led the San Francisco 49ers to an NFL-best defensive EPA per play, gapping the next-best Dallas Cowboys by a sizeable margin. Ryans will get several new additions to work with, including defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, safety Jimmie Ward and inside linebacker Denzel Perryman, all of whom recorded PFF grades at or around 75.
NFL Predictions for the AFC South Winner
Jacksonville or Houston -- Why Not Both?
At odds of -155 (60.8%) via FanDuel, the Jaguars are likelier to win the AFC South than not. Given my skepticism of Tennessee and Indianapolis, I'm willing to play this down to around -180 (64.3%). Still, you won't make a ton of money placing futures bets like this one, especially since injuries and other chaotic features of the NFL can kill your chances. Let's limit our unit size to whatever it takes to yield a half-unit profit and sprinkle a little on Houston.
Call me crazy all you want, but the AFC South has so much parity that any team can win in any given year. I got action on Jacksonville to win the division at odds of +800 (11.1%) before last season for exactly that reason. With the Jaguars now having to play each of the AFC's division winners from last season, getting action on Houston at odds of +1000 (9.1%) could work out. The Texans rank seventh in strength of schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis, which trails only the third-ranked Colts in the AFC South. The Titans rank ninth and the Jaguars rank 12th.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you'll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get $200 in bonus bets by placing a $20 wager!
AFC South Winner Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -155 for 0.77 Units & Houston Texans +1000 for 0.13 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC East Preview & Futures Picks
AFC North Preview & Futures Picks
AFC South Preview & Futures Picks
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
NFC East Preview & Futures Picks
NFC North Preview & Futures Picks
NFC South Preview & Futures Picks
NFC West Preview & Futures Picks
