No division in football has undergone more change this offseason than the NFC South. The AFC South is a close runner-up, but two starting quarterbacks will return, unlike the NFC South, where only one returns: Desmond Ridder. Let’s dive into the 2023 NFC South preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our NFC South winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: NFC South Preview & Futures Picks (July 20)
NFC South Winner Odds
NFC South Preview: The Favorite
After multiple seasons of struggling with a revolving door at quarterback, the Saints decided to solve their problems by signing Derek Carr. The Carr-led Raiders entered last season with high expectations -- weapons like running back Josh Jacobs, wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Darren Waller warranted them. The Raiders ended the season ranked 15th in offensive expected points added (EPA) and 13th in EPA per dropback. Carr also ranked 13th in adjusted EPA per play. He ranks a solid 32nd among 93 eligible quarterbacks in the metric since entering the league in 2014. Carr's steady production suggests he wasn't the problem in Las Vegas.
The veteran quarterback joins a New Orleans Saints team that ranked 22nd in offensive EPA per play last season. Almost every key piece returns on the offensive side of the ball. Tackles Trevor Penning and Ryan Ramczyk, who both recorded PFF grades north of 72.5 last season, return to lead an offensive line that ranked an okay 16th in pass-block win rate last year. Penning missed the start of the season with a foot injury and suffered another one in New Orleans' season finale, so his health will be an important story to follow in the preseason. Leading rusher Alvin Kamara is back but will likely face a suspension. Leading receivers Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed all return as well.
The defense could be an issue for the Saints. After years of solid play on that side of the ball, the Saints have steadily bled out talent and finished last year ranked 10th in defensive EPA per play. They continued to bleed this offseason, as defensive tackles David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle left for NFC South rivals, while linebacker Kaden Elliss and defensive end Marcus Davenport also departed. The Saints retooled by adding defensive linemen Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders in free agency along with Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey in the draft, but this unit may take some time to gel. Star safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye anchor a secondary that lacks much talent at cornerback.
NFC South Preview: The Field
The NFC South race is wide open in 2023. The new-look Carolina Panthers, led by head coach Frank Reich and rookie quarterback Bryce Young, will have a shot to make some noise early. Likewise, the Atlanta Falcons added star running back Bijan Robinson and bolstered their league-worst pass rush with several free agents. They're the only team entering the season with a starting quarterback who also started for them last season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, last year's NFC South winners, enter a bit of a rebuilding period after losing Tom Brady, but they still have a number of big-name pieces on their roster, including star wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
I'm hesitant to write off any team in this division, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers probably aren't competing for the title this year. The team will ask Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask to take an offense that not even Tom Brady could lead to a winning record. The offensive line was a huge problem, as the unit ranked 25th in pass-bock win rate. The Buccaneers still have an elite tackle in Tristan Wirfs, but they lost tackle Donovan Smith and guard Shaq Mason. Two of their current projected starters, Matt Feiler and Luke Goedeke, recorded atrocious PFF grades last season. Getting center Ryan Jensen back will help but probably not enough for Mayfield or Trask to succeed.
The second-leading option, the Atlanta Falcons, led the NFC South in offensive EPA per play last year. They still ranked only 19th in the NFL but improved slightly to 16th after their Week 14 bye. They'll turn to second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder full-time this season, and he'll get to work with some exciting weapons in running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. The offense is well-constructed for head coach Arthur Smith to work his positionless magic. However, the Falcons ranked an abysmal 23rd in defensive EPA per play last year, in no small part due to their league-worst pass rush. They'll hope for better production after spending up to bring in star safety Jessie Bates III along with several weapons in the trenches, including defensive lineman Calais Campbell and edge rusher Bud Dupree.
The Panthers come in with the next-best odds. They will look very different this season -- none of the four quarterbacks who attempted a pass for them last year are still on the roster, replaced by rookie Bryce Young and veteran Andy Dalton. Two of the team's three leading rushers are gone, as is leading receiver D.J. Moore. Replacing them are running back Miles Sanders and wide receivers Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo and D.J. Chark Jr. Carolina's offensive line, which ranked 11th in pass-block win rate, remains mostly intact. New head coach Frank Reich hired Denver's defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero, to serve in the same role. Evero's Broncos led the NFL in defensive EPA per play at the midpoint of the season last year. He has several interesting pieces to work with in Carolina, including star cornerback Jaycee Horn, star edge rusher Brian Burns and star defensive lineman Derrick Brown. The Panthers also invested heavily in safety Vonn Bell and nose tackle Shy Tuttle this offseason.
NFL Predictions for the NFC South Winner
Why Pay Up for the Saints or Falcons?
Absolutely nothing is certain in this year's NFC South. The three contending teams will all look dramatically different in several ways, and even the Buccaneers have a shot if everything works out in their favor. I would personally make this market a three-team race with no clear favorite; none of the top three teams deserve odds shorter than +200 (33.3%) or longer than +300 (25%). That leads us to our NFC South winner prediction: the Carolina Panthers. The +420 (%) at FanDuel Sportsbook is laughably long for a division this chaotic. The Panthers entered Week 17 of last season with a shot to win the division despite their revolving door at quarterback and the mid-season firing of head coach Matt Rhule.
This pick comes down to my faith in Carolina's coaching staff and strength of schedule. Head coach Frank Reich's Colts ranked 10th in offensive EPA from 2018 to 2021 despite a lack of steady production at quarterback. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero's Broncos ranked ninth in defensive EPA despite no support from the offense. The unit even led the NFL in the metric before Bradley Chubb got shipped off. If both coaches can replicate that success in Charlotte, the Panthers have a clear path to the division title.
The Panthers rank fourth in strength of schedule, per the win-totals-based analysis done by Sharp Football Analysis. They trail the first-ranked Saints and second-ranked Falcons. However, their unshared opponents aren't all that dissimilar -- the Saints draw the Patriots, Giants (late in the season) and Rams; the Falcons draw the Jets, Cardinals (late in the season) and Commanders; the Panthers draw the Dolphins, Seahawks and Lions. Although I give a slight edge to the Saints, it's not nearly enough of one to warrant backing them to win the 2023 NFC South at +130 (43.5%) or shorter.
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NFC South Winner Prediction: Carolina Panthers +420 for 0.25 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC East Preview & Futures Picks
AFC North Preview & Futures Picks
AFC South Preview & Futures Picks
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
NFC East Preview & Futures Picks
NFC North Preview & Futures Picks
NFC South Preview & Futures Picks
NFC West Preview & Futures Picks
