The Baltimore Ravens finally saw their preseason winning streak come to an end with a late-game field goal against the Washington Commanders. That was tough for them — and for us — but we’re still net up on our preseason bets. Let’s dive into my NFL preseason Week 3 predictions so that we can talk about the best preseason picks for Rams-Broncos, Texans-Saints and more Week 3 action.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our NFC South and AFC North previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
NFL Preseason Week 3 Predictions: Best Rams-Broncos, Texans-Saints Picks and More
Steelers-Falcons NFL Preseason Week 3 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Steelers: -200 | Falcons: +170
Steelers -4.5: -110 | Falcons +4.5: -110
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
For updated Steelers-Falcons odds and picks, click here.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not having as good of a preseason as their record suggests. At first blush, it looks like they’re rolling their opponents every week. They sit at 2-0 with a pair of double-digit wins. However, the yardage just hasn’t been there for them. The Steelers averaged 5.1 yards per play against the Buccaneers but benefited from a whopping 127 penalty yards, netting them 81, along with a breakeven turnover differential. They then averaged only 4.4 yards per play against the Bills with 67 net penalty yards and a +3 turnover margin.
Atlanta has had a similarly stagnant preseason on offense. The Falcons beat the Dolphins 19-3 in Week 1, but 13 of their points stemmed from defensive and special teams play — Dee Alford scored on a punt return and Breon Borders ran back a pick-six. Atlanta’s offense generated only 4.3 yards per play. Last week, they averaged a respectable 5.8 yards per play with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke both seeing action, along with skill-position players like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but who knows how much run they’ll get this time.
It’s unclear which units will see action in Steelers-Falcons this week, but regardless of who takes the field, give me the under. This total should be slightly lower given the tepid offensive production we’ve seen out of both sides. The Steelers have relied on big plays and penalty yards. The Falcons have needed similar splash plays to get on the board as well. Meanwhile, both teams have pitched solid games on defense: the Steelers have allowed only 5.3 yards per play, while the Falcons have allowed just 5.1.
Let’s play the under 38.5 before it disappears. The Steelers have shown plenty of scoring potential in the preseason, but they haven’t picked up the yards necessary to back that up. Likewise, the Falcons did nothing offensively in Week 1 and may not need to give the starters who carried them over the top in Week 2 again before the regular season begins. Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh have gotten lucky, so it makes sense to fade them both and root for regression to the mean.
Steelers-Falcons NFL Preseason Pick: Under 38.5 -110 at FanDuel
Patriots-Titans NFL Preseason Week 3 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Patriots: -140 | Titans: +120
Patriots -2.5: -115 | Titans +2.5: -105
Over 38.5: -105 | Under 38.5: -115
For updated Patriots-Titans odds and picks, click here.
The New England Patriots will take on the Tennessee Titans in a preseason finale that could get weird. The Titans have only three quarterbacks on their roster, and one of them, rookie Will Levis, has a lower-body injury. While he warmed up with the team before Tennessee’s Week 2 game, there is no guarantee that he’ll suit up. If he doesn’t, the Titans will likely give Malik Willis the entire game, which means inefficient passing and lots of rushing. If he does play, they’ll have similarly inefficient passing on tap — Levis completed only 64.2% of his passes for 3.9 net yards per attempt and an interception in Week 1.
Tennessee’s already inefficient offense will take on a solid New England defense that has proven quite stingy against the run in the preseason. New England held Houston to 3 yards per carry in Week 1 and Green Bay to 4.1 yards per carry in Week 2. Although the Titans ran the ball only 34.7% of the time in Week 1 with Levis active, they ran 67.8% of the time with him out in Week 2. To their credit, they have generated plenty of yards on the ground — but they also did so against the Bears and Packers, two bottom-six defenses by yards allowed per carry last year.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots enter Week 3 after using only first-string quarterback Mac Jones and backup Bailey Zappe in Week 2, so I expect to see more from the reserves on Friday. Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham both have a case to make the roster because of the new emergency quarterback rule, but the Patriots will probably want to see more of them both. McSorley went 1-for-3 for -1 NY/A with one three-yard rush in Week 1, while Cunningham went 3-for-4 for 4.8 NY/A with 34 rushing yards and a score. The rookie has reportedly been trying to make the team as a receiver, but his five-target, zero-catch showing in Week 2 could make that doing so difficult.
The total for Friday’s game between these teams sits at 38.5, so give me the under. Although the Titans have looked terrible through the air but efficient on the ground, they’ll struggle to replicate that success against a team that prioritizes stuffing the run — the Patriots ranked fourth in yards allowed per rush last season. The Patriots didn’t get to use their reserve quarterbacks late last week because of their game’s cancellation, so Bill Belichick will likely make that a priority as he chooses between Cunningham and McSorley at QB3. I doubt the total will be trading at 38.5 later in the week.
Patriots-Titans NFL Preseason Pick: Under 38.5 -115 at FanDuel
Rams-Broncos NFL Preseason Week 3 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Rams: +190 | Broncos: -240
Rams +5.5: -105 | Broncos -5.5: -115
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
For updated Rams-Broncos odds and picks, click here.
The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos will square off late on Saturday night. While you might be busy watching college football, because, you know, it actually means something — you can check out our Week 0 picks here, by the way — there’s still preseason action to bet on. Saturday night’s Broncos-Rams game probably won’t be all that exciting, but it’s an interesting spot nonetheless. Both teams have performed acceptably on offense but haven’t done a thing on defense.
Let’s look at Denver’s offense first. Head coach Sean Payton has given his starters some run, usually opening each game with Russell Wilson at the helm before pivoting to the reserves, which include Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Wilson has underperformed in Sean Payton’s offense and has completed only 52.6% of his passes for 5.5 NY/A. However, the Broncos have still averaged an impressive 5.4 yards per play, largely due to an effective ground game and better-than-Wilson play from Stidham and DiNucci. Meanwhile, the defense has coughed up 5.3 yards per play.
Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t fared quite as well, and their defense looks worse, too. The Rams have scored exactly 17 points in each of their preseason games while averaging 4.3 yards per play. Rookie Stetson Bennett, who has played the most reps of any L.A. quarterback, has completed 60.3% of his passes for 5.3 NY/A, which isn’t great. The rushing attack has provided very little support. The defense has coughed up an embarrassing 5.9 yards per play and 5.6 yards per rush attempt as well.
Just give me the over in this spot. The Rams desperately need to show some signs of life on offense, while the Broncos still need to figure out what’s wrong with their first-team unit. Both teams will get a chance to show out against defenses that have looked like sieves in the preseason. While it feels square to trust two as-of-yet-unproven offenses, we’re getting this total at a discount with it set to only 36.5, so let’s take advantage and not look back.
Broncos-Rams NFL Preseason Pick: Over 36.5 -110 at FanDuel
Texans-Saints NFL Preseason Week 3 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texans: +145 | Saints: -170
Texans +3.5: -115 | Saints -3.5: -105
Over 38: -110 | Under 38: -110
For updated Texans-Saints odds and picks, click here.
Week 3 of the NFL preseason — and the NFL preseason as a whole — will come to an end on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints take on the Houston Texans. The Saints have looked solid in the preseason to this point but have also been using their starters more than most teams. The Texans haven’t looked great despite using first-round rookie C.J. Stroud early in both games. Houston’s offense has averaged a pathetic 4.2 yards per play this preseason. In contrast, New Orleans’ offense has averaged 5 yards per play.
The Saints and Texans canceled joint practices this week, likely to prevent injuries, which have plagued Houston’s already-questionable roster. Third-string quarterback Case Keenum, who would normally provide some valuable veteran reps, missed Week 2 and could sit again in Week 3. Rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, who has looked great in the preseason, picked up an injury before last weekend’s game against the Dolphins and was held out. Several offensive linemen have also picked up injury tags as well, including starting right tackle Tytus Howard.
The Saints have some injuries of their own to worry about, but they’ll likely benefit from an overly-cautious Texans team, which only magnifies their massive advantage at quarterback. The Saints used Derek Carr briefly in Week 1 before pivoting exclusively to backup Jameis Winston and third-string Jake Haener in Week 2. The duo has looked pretty good to this point and has recorded 6 NY/A with two touchdowns and one interception. While that isn’t elite production, it’s far better than the 4.9 NY/A Mills and Stroud have combined to produce.
The Saints are only a 3.5-point favorite over the Texans, which doesn’t reflect just how bad Houston has looked in the preseason. The five-catch, 65-yard explosion from Tank Dell in Week 1 was impressive, but even if he suits up again in Week 3, he doesn’t move the needle enough for me to justify this number. New Orleans hasn’t been perfect, but we’ve seen more than enough out of their players to justify backing them to beat the Texans by more than a field goal. It helps that head coach Dennis Allen has been willing to kick field goals on fourth down instead of trying to convert — and that kicker Wil Lutz can actually hit them.
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Texans-Saints NFL Preseason Pick: New Orleans -3.5 -105 at FanDuel
