Our top survivor pick came through once again, as the Miami Dolphins cruised to a 34-19 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Looking ahead to NFL Week 12, we’re met with another slate featuring several strong options. However, one team stands out as the clear favorite. Let’s dive into our top recommendations for your NFL survivor pool picks in Week 12.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 12: Commanders, Chiefs or Texans?
Commanders -10.5 vs. Cowboys | NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 12
After an impressive 7-2 start to their season, the Washington Commanders have come back to reality. Facing two legitimate contenders — the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles — they fell short in both matchups. Now, they’ll aim to rebound against their division rival, the Dallas Cowboys.
Fortunately for the Commanders, the Cowboys are in freefall, having lost five consecutive games. Dallas is stuck with a backup quarterback and a defense that’s been anything but reliable.
The Cowboys rank 30th in defensive EPA per play and yards allowed per play (5.9). Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has also regressed after a strong start. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 18.8 completions on 31.5 attempts (60.6% completion rate) for 232 passing yards per game. Narrowing it further to his last three games, excluding his 326-yard outlier against the Chicago Bears, Daniels’ average drops to just 200 yards per game.
As a double-digit favorite against one of the NFL’s weakest defenses, Daniels and the Commanders should have no trouble getting back on track in Week 12. However, they aren’t my top survivor pick because next week they host the non-division Tennessee Titans — a game they should dominate as well. While I’m confident in their chances here, I’d prefer to save them for the future.
Chiefs -11 at Panthers | NFL Survivor Week 12
The NFL no longer has an undefeated team this season. The previously 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Buffalo Bills last week, 30-21, marking their first loss of the year. Fortunately, the Carolina Panthers are the perfect opponent the Chiefs need to regain their rhythm.
Surprisingly, Bryce Young finally looked like a competent quarterback in his most recent start. Playing overseas, he completed 15 of 25 passes for 1 touchdown with no turnovers. While those numbers aren’t exactly game-changing, they represent significant progress for Young, who has now led the Panthers to back-to-back wins.
That momentum is unlikely to last this Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs defense poses a much tougher challenge than the Saints and Giants.
While Young’s improvement is notable, the Panthers’ success has primarily come through their ground game. However, they’ll be up against a Kansas City run defense that ranks third in EPA and fourth in success rate. If the Panthers struggle to establish the run, it’s hard to see them succeeding in other phases of the game.
This sets up well for a Chiefs victory and makes them a very tempting option for a survivor pick. However, similar to my thoughts on the Commanders, the Chiefs have another favorable matchup next week when they host the Raiders. For that reason, I’d prefer to hold onto the Chiefs a bit longer as well.
Texans -8.5 vs. Titans | NFL Survivor Week 12
This is the best and likely last opportunity to use the Houston Texans in a survivor pool if you haven’t already. After dropping two straight games, they bounced back with an impressive 34-10 win over Dallas on Monday night.
In Week 12, the Texans host the struggling Tennessee Titans. While the Titans defense has had its moments, the return of Houston’s top receiver, Nico Collins, should be the difference-maker.
Pair that with the ineptitude of Tennessee’s offense, and Houston holds a significant edge. The Titans rank 30th in offensive success rate and 28th in EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Texans defense is getting healthier and should thrive against the struggling Will Levis.
Don’t overthink this one — fade Levis whenever possible with your survivor picks.
Best NFL Week 12 Survivor Pick: Houston Texans
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