Last week was a tough one, with our top choice, the Houston Texans, falling in heartbreaking fashion. In Week 13, the Thanksgiving day games present unique formatting in many survivor contests, so be sure to review your league’s rules before locking in your picks. Now, let’s dive into my top recommendations for NFL survivor pool picks in Week 13.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13: Lions, Commanders or Chiefs?
Lions -9.5 vs. Bears | NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13
Several survivor contests treat Thanksgiving Day as its own week, requiring participants to pick one team from the three Thursday games and another from the usual slate.
The Detroit Lions are the clear and obvious choice for Thanksgiving, and it’s likely many have been saving them specifically for this week.
While the Bears’ offense has shown improvement under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, they remain overmatched by the Lions’ overall dominance. Detroit’s defense is vastly underrated, ranking second overall per PFF. Although Caleb Williams and company may have some success moving the ball, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with Detroit for all four quarters.
The Lions’ offensive efficiency, particularly in their backfield, is their biggest advantage. The dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is poised to exploit a Bears defense that ranks 20th in rush EPA per play and allows 4.8 yards per carry.
If you still have the Lions available, consider yourself lucky – they’re the ideal pick for the Thanksgiving slate.
Commanders -6 vs. Titans | NFL Survivor Week 13
As we shift to the Sunday slate, the Washington Commanders find themselves in an appealing spot against the Tennessee Titans.
Washington is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Dallas, while Tennessee is riding high after a surprising win over Houston.
However, this matchup sets up as a prime bounce-back opportunity for the Commanders, whereas the Titans’ victory was a fluke and regression to the mean is likely for them.
Jayden Daniels, despite showing minor signs of regression, should thrive against a Titans defense that PFF ranks 19th in coverage. On the other side, Will Levis is still who we thought he was – don’t let last week fool you. He ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 33rd in success rate among qualified quarterbacks this season.
The Commanders are desperate to right the ship after last week’s loss, and they’re catching one of the league’s weakest teams coming off a high. This is a spot where Washington should regain momentum.
Chiefs -13 vs. Raiders | NFL Survivor Week 13
The Kansas City Chiefs rarely make things easy, but they almost always find a way to win. This week, however, could be an exception, as they’re set up perfectly to dominate against one of the NFL’s worst teams.
The Las Vegas Raiders rank 28th in defense according to PFF and allow touchdowns on 64.3% of red zone trips (24th in the league). When these teams met earlier this season in Vegas, the Chiefs came away with a 27-20 victory.
This time around, the Raiders are expected to start either Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Connell at quarterback — not exactly the most attractive pair to choose from. Regardless of who lines up under center, the Chiefs should have no trouble finding a path to victory, proving themselves to be the top survivor pick for Week 13.
Best NFL Week 13 Survivor Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Want more picks? Join Danny and the OddsShopper team in our NEW Tails By OddsShopper, where you can network with fellow sports bettors and industry experts! If you use code “Burke50” you can receive 50% off your first purchase of his monthly or weekly package!
