Week 1 was tough for survivor contests across the country, but Week 2 was even harsher. Circa Sports, which hosts the world’s largest Survivor Contest, began the season with 14,266 entries. After the first week of the season, 4,895 contestants alone (34%) were eliminated due to the Bengals losing. In Week 2, the Ravens knocked out another 2,304 entries. Overall, just 3,877 remain (27%). If you’re still alive in any survivor pool, consider yourself fortunate. You should also feel confident, as there are a handful of options for this week’s slate. Let’s get you ready for NFL survivor pool picks in Week 3 with some of my top recommendations.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 3 (2024)
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 3: Jets, 49ers, Buccaneers, Bengals or Browns?
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Jets (-6.0) vs. Patriots | NFL Survivor Week 3
The New England Patriots have played much better than anticipated. Heck, my favorite win total bet before the season was the Patriots under 4.5 wins. While that’s still possible, New England starting the season with a big underdog victory and playing competitively in Week 2 has shaken my confidence a bit.
That said, they face another tough challenge in Week 3 with a short week and a road game against a division rival. Many advise avoiding division matchups, and I often do, but I don’t want to overreact to how New England has looked and will stick to my preseason instincts. BetMGM lists the Jets as -275 favorites, implying a 73.3% win probability. Jets head coach Robert Saleh is familiar with the Patriots, and his team has the talent to beat them. While it’s not my top choice, it’s certainly worth considering.
Buccaneers (-6.5) vs. Broncos | NFL Survivor Week 3
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are off to an impressive 2-0 start with wins over the Commanders and Lions. Meanwhile, the Broncos are still searching for their first victory with rookie quarterback Bo Nix under center. Mayfield currently ranks second in quarterback success rate, while Nix is 30th.
Denver’s struggles were expected, and it looks like they will continue into Week 3. FanDuel lists Tampa Bay as a -335 favorite (77% implied win probability). Unless you’re planning to save the Buccaneers for Week 17 when they host the Panthers, using them as your survivor pick this week could be the most viable option.
49ers (-7.0) at Rams | NFL Survivor Week 3
The real winner of this game will be the team that escapes with the fewest injuries. San Francisco is already missing key contributors like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, while Los Angeles has an extensive injury list, most notably receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
The 49ers have the depth to fill those gaps, but the Rams roster continues to dwindle and get exposed, as seen in their 41-10 loss to the Cardinals last week. Facing an offensive mastermind like Kyle Shanahan, who knows the Rams’ defensive schemes inside and out, is a recipe for disaster — especially when the Rams rank dead last in defensive success rate heading into Week 3.
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While picking division matchups or road teams in survivor pools can be risky, this might be an exception. However, keep in mind that San Francisco has an easier matchup next week at home against the Patriots.
Bengals (-7.5) vs Commanders | NFL Survivor Week 3
The Cincinnati Bengals are desperate for a win after losing as touchdown favorites to the Patriots in Week 1 and falling to the Chiefs on a game-winning kick in Week 2. On Monday Night Football, they get a favorable matchup against a developing but vulnerable Washington Commanders team.
Offensively, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have been solid, ranking fourth in EPA per play. However, their defense ranks last in the league at 32nd in EPA per play. While Cincinnati is the “safe” option this week, it’s worth noting that they have several winnable matchups later in the season, so you may want to save them for those. Still, with their current situation, this game is a do-or-die scenario for Bengals, much like we have in survivor pools.
Browns (-6.5) vs Giants | NFL Survivor Week 3
When I first mapped out my survivor strategy, the Cleveland Browns weren’t a top choice for this week. But, as we all know, things can change quickly in the NFL. It’s not that anything major has happened with the Browns — it’s more about how bad the New York Giants continue to look. This is likely the best spot on the Browns schedule to feel confident in them, especially as they are now -335 favorites (77% implied win probability) at Caesars.
Cleveland’s defense ranks ninth in success rate and is top 10 in both dropback EPA and success rate, while New York’s defense ranks 30th in total EPA per play. Offensively, both of these teams set back the sport of football decades — but at least the Browns have advantages in the trenches, amongst their skill positions (as long as Deshaun Watson can get them the ball) and with home field. It’s incredibly gross, but sometimes you’ve got to get down and dirty in survivor contests.
Best NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick: Cleveland Browns
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