I have now said for the past two weeks that if you still have a Survivor Pool entry alive that you should feel fortunate. Here I am, again, ready to shower anyone who is still alive with praise and admiration. Each week of this NFL season, the three biggest favorites on the board have lost outright, something that hasn’t happened in consecutive weeks since 2001. At Circa Sports, which holds the world’s largest Survivor Contest, only 642 entries out of 14,266 (4.5%) have made it to Week 4. In Week 3, the Bengals (-7.5), Browns (-6.5), Bucs (-6), and 49ers (-6) all lost, with the New York Jets (-6.5) as the only sizable favorite to pull through. If you’re still hanging on, let’s go ahead and try as best we can to get you ready for NFL survivor pool picks in Week 4 with some of my top recommendations.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4 (2024)
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4: Texans, Jets, Chiefs, or 49ers?
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Texans -6.5 vs Jaguars | NFL Survivor Week 4
The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled offensively, scoring just 40 points through three games (13.3 ppg). They’re coming off a brutal 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are also following an embarrassing performance in Week 3, after falling 34-7 against the Minnesota Vikings.
The key difference in this matchup will come down to quarterback play. Trevor Lawrence has now lost his last eight starts, completing just 59% of his passes for 1,830 yards, 11 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 3 lost fumbles over that span. This season, his performance has dipped further, with a 53% completion rate, 560 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
The conversation needs to be had about the legitimacy of Lawrence and whether it’s worth fading him for a survivor entry. The answer is probably yes. The issue? Well, you may have already used Houston in Week 2 versus Chicago, or you might want to save them for Week 12 when they host the Tennessee Titans. BetMGM has the Texans as -300 favorites, giving them a 75% implied win probability.
Jets (-7.5) vs Broncos | NFL Survivor Week 4
If you didn’t use the New York Jets last week, this could be your spot. Despite coming off a road win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Denver Broncos are still more than a touchdown underdog in this matchup. The Jets appeared to find their rhythm last Thursday—though it was against the New England Patriots on a short week.
These teams met last season in Week 5 in Denver, where the Jets, led by Zach Wilson, won 31-21 in what was dubbed the “Nathaniel Hackett Revenge Game.” Could that narrative still hold this year, or will Sean Payton and his team use last season’s loss as motivation?
Either way, while it may be tempting to use New York, I believe there are stronger options.
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Chiefs (-8) @ Chargers | NFL Survivor Week 4
A road game within the division is typically a stay-away spot in survivor pools. However, there’s uncertainty surrounding Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who exited last week’s game in the third quarter after aggravating an ankle injury. Backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke came in and was sacked three times, completing 2 of 2 passes for 24 yards. The Chargers didn’t record a first down after Herbert’s departure.
Kansas City has beaten Los Angeles in their last five meetings, though by an average margin of just 5.4 points. The Chiefs are -400 favorites (80% implied win probability) at BetRivers. The decision to use Kansas City hinges on Herbert’s availability.
49ers (-10) vs Patriots | NFL Survivor Week 4
No surprise here – the double-digit favorite looks like the safest choice for survivor pool entries this week. Despite the largest favorite losing each of the last three weeks, I think we can confidently assume this will be different.
That said, San Francisco is dealing with some injuries. Brock Purdy has a sore back, George Kittle is questionable after missing Week 3, and Deebo Samuel is doubtful. However, if Kittle returns and Purdy is ready to go, the 49ers should still be in a strong position to handle business. They’ll be motivated to bounce back after their embarrassing loss to the Rams last Sunday. DraftKings has them as -500 favorites (83.3% implied win probability). Heading into the season, this week was circled as a prime opportunity to use San Francisco for a survivor pick, and I believe that still holds true.
Best NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers
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