Finally, we had a week with limited carnage in survivor pools. Aside from the Jets’ loss to the Broncos, the Texans, Chiefs and 49ers came through as sizable favorites. At this point, you’re either incredibly lucky to be alive in your original Survivor Pool, or you’ve likely received emails about a “Survivor 2.0.” Whether you’re barely hanging on or gearing up for a reload, let’s dive into some top recommendations for your NFL survivor pool picks in Week 5.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 5: Bears, 49ers or Seahawks?
Want to get started betting on the NFL — or just want to find winners? Check out our guide to NFL betting strategy!
49ers -7.5 vs. Cardinals | NFL Survivor Week 5
The San Francisco 49ers bounced back in Week 4, defeating the Patriots 30-13 after a devastating Week 3 loss to the Rams. Having key players such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle return to the lineup made huge impacts.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals took a step in the wrong direction, getting blown out by the Washington Commanders 42-14. While their offense shows flashes of potential, scoring just 14 points against one of the league’s worst defenses doesn’t inspire much confidence — especially with their next opponent ranking 10th in EPA per play allowed.
The 49ers offense, on the other hand, has a more favorable outlook, as it will face a Cardinals defense that ranks dead last in defensive success rate and 30th in defensive EPA per play. I have no issue with taking San Francisco; however, you may want to save them for either Week 14 versus the Bears or Week 15 when the 49ers host the Rams.
Bears -3.5 vs. Panthers | NFL Survivor Week 5
I know what you’re thinking: “How can you trust the Bears?” Hear me out. Heading into the season, this matchup looked like a prime spot to take Chicago — and it still could be. Initially, it was attractive because Bryce Young was expected to start.
Now, with Andy Dalton at the helm, the Panthers offense has shown some competence. Nevertheless, it will be up against a stout Chicago defense that ranks second in dropback EPA.
On the other side, the Panthers rank 28th in defensive success rate and 26th in defensive EPA per play. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has steadily improved each week, posting passer ratings of 55.7, 51, 80.8 and 106.6 through the first four games. Last week, he completed 74% of his passes without committing any turnovers. With the Panthers boasting the 31st-ranked pass rush, Williams should have more time in the pocket, even behind a subpar offensive line.
Additionally, starting running back D’Andre Swift had a breakout performance, rushing 16 times for 93 yards and a touchdown while adding seven catches for 72 receiving yards. Carolina’s defense ranks 23rd in rush EPA and allows 4.6 yards per carry, making this a favorable matchup for Swift to continue his success on the ground.
Playing at Soldier Field gives the Bears a significant boost, as they’ve won their last seven games there. While Dalton may be an upgrade at quarterback for the Panthers, the Bears hold most of the advantages across the field. It may not be a sexy pick — but it could be a smart one that saves you from using a top team you’d rather reserve for later in the season.
Seahawks -6 vs. Giants | NFL Survivor Week 5
The Seattle Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season on Monday night, falling to the Lions 42-29. However, a home game against the Giants presents a strong bounce-back opportunity.
One potential disadvantage for the Seahawks is the rest differential. Seattle played Monday night, while the Giants had extra time off after their Thursday night game. That extra rest can be crucial, especially for the Giants, who had their star receiver Malik Nabers exit the last game with a concussion. He has yet to practice this week and is questionable for Sunday. If Nabers is unable to play, it will further limit an already mediocre Daniel Jones.
Although the Seahawks are short on rest, playing at Lumen Field gives them a significant edge. Outside of its rough Week 4 showing in Detroit, Seattle’s defense has been solid, ranking in the top 10 in both defensive EPA per play and success rate. Meanwhile, the Giants average just 4.7 yards per play and rank 27th in offensive success rate.
Best NFL Week 5 Survivor Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Want more picks? Join Danny and the OddsShopper team in our NEW Tails By OddsShopper, where you can network with fellow sports bettors and industry experts!
